International Relation Paper II by R. P Singh

Model Answer

Question 1. Highlight the recent initiatives adopted by India towards Afghanistan. What are the major concerns of India in South-Central Asia in the above context?

Approach:

• Introduce by giving a brief overview of Afghanistan and its location. (30 Words)
• Briefly enumerate the changing scenario in Afghanistan. (40 Words)
• Enumerate the impact this change will have on India (70 Words)
• Enumerate policy options that India has. (80 Words)
• Conclusion (30 Words)

Hints:

Afghanistan is a landlocked country, on the crossroads of Central and South Asia. It is of particular importance to India, due to its strategic location for trade with Central Asian countries.

Changing scenario in Afghanistan

• The USA came to Afghanistan in 2001, after the 09/11 attack on twin towers in the USA. It came with the objective of eliminating terrorists in the country.
• As the USA’s policy is now shifting to East Asia (Pivot to Asia), due to the emergence of China, it decided to leave Afghanistan and end the long drawn 20 years war.
• As the USA left, the Taliban swiftly brought the country under its control and now has formed a Government in Afghanistan.

Impact on India:

• The withdrawal of the US alters the balance of power in favour of the Taliban, which will have strategic, security and political implications for India, like
  • Investment: India has a major stake in the stability of Afghanistan. India has invested considerable resources in Afghanistan's development.
  • Taliban supported by Pakistan: An increased political and military role for the Taliban and the expansion of its territorial control should be of great concern to India since the Taliban is widely believed to be a protégé of Islamabad.
  • Connectivity to Central Asia: As Afghanistan is the gateway to Central Asia, the deal might dampen India’s interest in Central Asia.
  • Terrorist Outfits: Withdrawal of US troops could result in the breeding of fertile ground for various anti-India terrorist outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammed.
  • Leverage to Pakistani establishment
  • Refugee crisis

Policy options with India:

• Talking with the Taliban: Talking to Taliban would allow India to seek security guarantees from the insurgents in return for continued development assistance or other pledges as well as explore the possibility of the Taliban’s autonomy from Pakistan.
  • At this point, talking to the Taliban looks inevitable. But India should not overlook the deep ties between Pakistan’s security establishment and the Haqqani Network, a major faction within the Taliban.
• Regional solution: There is a convergence of interests between India and three key regional players — China, Russia and Iran — in seeing a political settlement in Afghanistan.
  • None of these countries would like to see the Taliban letting terrorist groups settle on its territory.
  • Thus, there is a need for cooperation from likeminded countries on this front.
• Short Term and Long Term Goal: India’s immediate goal should be the safety and security of its personnel and investments.
  • The long-term goal should be finding a political solution to the crisis. None of this can be achieved unless it works together with the regional powers.
• Russian Support: Russia has cultivated links with the Taliban in recent years. India would need Russia’s support in any form of direct engagement with the Taliban.
• Significance of Iran: Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan and has close resemblance of ethnic minorities.
  • The original objective of India’s Chabahar project in Iran was to create a direct access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.
  • This direct access is critical for India in all different scenarios — move supplies to Afghanistan in larger quantities, retains its presence in the event of a civil war or carries out covert operations if the Taliban take power by force.
  • However, the US's pressure on India is a roadblock in good relations between the two countries.
• Bonhomie with China: India should talk with China, with the objective of finding a political settlement and lasting stability in Afghanistan.

Conclusion

An independent, sovereign, democratic, pluralistic and inclusive Afghanistan is crucial for peace and stability in the region. But India also needs to accept that the Taliban is a reality in Afghanistan. India should find a balanced approach to deal with Afghanistan in collaboration with Russia and Iran, such that its twin objectives of national security and peaceful Afghanistan are achieved.

Question 2. Domestic factors play important role in shaping India-Bangladesh relations. Analyse the statement by giving recent examples.

Approach:

• Give a brief background of India- Bangladesh relations (40 words)
• Discuss the various dimensions of India Bangladesh relation (90 words)
• Also discuss some of the hiccups in India Bangladesh relation (80 words)
• Conclusion (40 words)

Hints:

The year 2021 marks the golden jubilee of the Bangladesh Liberation War. It also marks 50 years since the establishment of bilateral diplomatic ties between India and one of India’s closest neighbors, Bangladesh. 2021 is also the birth centenary celebrations year of founder of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. It is said that our relations with Bangladesh is the most illustrious example of success of our neighborhood first policy and as our prime minister succinctly put it that India Bangladesh relations have entered a golden phase.

Transformation of India Bangladesh relations:

• India and Bangladesh have successfully resolved their long-standing boundary issues by passage of boundary agreement in India parliament and India accepting the award of permanent court of arbitration in New Moor Island case.
• India and Bangladesh have completed many connectivity projects like maitry setu on Feni bridge and Agartala – Akhaura railway line to boost up the integration of India’s north-east region with economic centers in Bangladesh.
• Connectivity got further boosted through completion of projects like Kaladan multi-model project and BBIN motor vehicle agreement.
• Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and India is the second biggest trade partner of Bangladesh. Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh has grown steadily over the last decade and the exports of Bangladesh have tripled over the last decade to cross $1 bn in 2018-19.
• Under prime minister Shiek Hasina Bangladesh is highly receptive to Indian concern on terrorism and has actively cooperated with Indian security establishment to flush out terror groups like ULFA from soil of Bangladesh.
• India and Bangladesh also cooperate at multilateral forums like BIMSTEC, ASEAN to shape a common regional narrative.

Despite this successful run certain issues are yet to be resolved in bilateral relationship:

• Bangladesh, being the downstream country, wants India to share more water from the Teesta, but New Delhi has so far been unable to strike a deal on the matter, likely due to strong opposition from West Bengal state.
• Bangladesh increasing defense cooperation with China in recent years has raised eyebrows in New Delhi. China is helping Bangladesh in construction of its first submarine base which houses Chinese submarines which have serious strategic consequences.
• Bangladesh is regularly being dragged in India’s domestic political discourse with divisive rhetoric on issues like CAA (citizenship amendment act) have hurt the optics of bilateral relationship.
• Issues of rehabilitation of Rohingya Muslims have led to India walking a tightrope between Bangladesh and Myanmar as a result it was China who took a lead in resolution of Rohingya Muslims.

Conclusion:

India and Bangladesh are natural partners due to the role India played in the Bangladesh            liberation war. Despite the setback in relation in 80s and 90s India and Bangladesh have managed to put the relations back on track. In future too both the countries are facing common challenges like climate change, rise of religious extremism etc. It is imperative that both countries resolved their outstanding issues through sustained dialogue to maintain the golden phase of bilateral relations.