Context

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center has predicted that India is likely to experience above-normal precipitation during its peak monsoon season from July to September. This forecast change is attributed to the recent ENSO alert which predicts a smooth transition from El Nino to La Nina condition.

About

• The El Nino and La Nina are the two phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that occurs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 
• El-Nino is the periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon has a direct impact on the weather patterns prevalent over the Indian peninsula. 
• La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. 
  • Typically, La Nina events occur every 3 to 5 years or so, but on occasion can occur over successive years. 
  • La Nina represents the cool phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

Impact on Indian Monsoon

• The June-September monsoon, which is vital for India's USD 3 trillion economy, brings nearly 70% of the rain the country needs to water crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers.
• Persistent El Nino conditions are likely to bring intense heat during the summer season this year. However, the prevailing El Nino conditions will likely get neutral after the summer season.
• Before a good monsoon, India will see a scorching summer season due to prevalent El Nino conditions. 
• More heatwave days than normal are predicted over northeast peninsular India -- Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and north interior Karnataka -- and many parts of Maharashtra and Odisha.