Young and the Old

Context:

A recent report in the Lancet highlights India's impending demographic shift towards becoming an ‘ageing society’, with projections indicating a significant increase in the elderly population by 2050.

Implications of Demographic Shift:

• Declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR): A sharp decline is predicted in India's TFR to 1.29 by 2050, indicating a significant decrease in the average number of children born to a woman. Consequently, one in five individuals is projected to be above the age of 60 by 2050, posing challenges associated with an ageing population.
• Lessons from Global Experiences:China provided valuable lessons for policymakers, when its working-age population peaked.Now, India must proactively address skill deficits and transform its economy to maximize the demographic dividend.
• Maximizing Demographic Dividend: With India's working-age population expected to peak in the late 2030s or early 2040s, priority must be given to enhancing skills, creating employment opportunities outside agriculture, and fostering growth in the knowledge economy.

Preparing for the Future:

• Ensuring Social Security and Healthcare: Policymakers must prioritize the development of robust social security and healthcare systems to meet the needs of the growing elderly population. Additionally, efforts should focus on effectively utilizing the skills and experience of older individuals to contribute to the economy.
• Addressing Regional Disparities: Regional variations in TFR rates across states in India present unique challenges, with certain regions experiencing accelerated ageing compared to others. Policymakers must adopt a nuanced approach to understand and address demographic shifts at the regional level.
• Planning for Change: It is imperative for policymakers to comprehend the multifaceted nature of the demographic transition and proactively plan for the future. Measures should be implemented to address skill gaps, promote inclusive growth, and ensure equitable access to social services for all segments of the population.