GS Analyst: Daily Editorial In Brief

Context:

India's stance on the South China Sea has undergone significant evolution, reflecting its broader strategic and economic aspirations on the global stage. Against the backdrop of escalating tensions between Manila and Beijing, India's External Affairs Minister's statement during a visit to Manila in March 2024 signals a departure from its previous cautious approach.

Policy Evolution:

• From Look East to Act East: Initially, India's engagement in the South China Sea was primarily economic under the Look East Policy, focused on economic integration and securing energy resources. However, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration, India transitioned to the Act East Policy, emphasizing strategic partnerships and expanded security cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Strategic Partnerships and Security Cooperation: The Act East Policy emphasizes not only economic integration but also strategic partnerships and expanded security cooperation with countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines. India has strengthened its capacities through forward positioning, mission-based deployments, and reinforced maritime domain awareness.
• Support for International Maritime Law: India's engagement reflects support for the principle of freedom of exploration and exploitation of maritime resources within the bounds of international law, particularly UNCLOS. This signifies India's commitment to a rules-based international maritime order.

India's Complex Ties with China:

• Historical Border Disputes: India and China have a history of border disputes, intensified since the Galwan Valley incident of 2020. China's assertive posture and periodic incursions into Indian Territory contribute to regional tensions.
• Demonstration of Capability: India's response to Chinese aggression includes sending a frontline warship to the South China Sea, demonstrating India's capability for asymmetric deterrence and commitment to regional security.
• Counter to China's Assertiveness: India's strategic engagements, including naval exercises and military cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, serve as a counter to China's unlawful assertions in the South China Sea and along India's land borders.

The ASEAN Factor:

• Regional Security Implications: India recognizes the critical importance of the South China Sea to regional security and the global maritime order. Disputes in the region impact principles vital for India's trade and energy transportation routes, as well as those of countries across the globe.
• India as a Responsible Stakeholder: As a responsible stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific, India advocates for a rules-based international maritime order, emphasizing UNCLOS. India's centrality in the Indo-Pacific requires it to buttress the ASEAN position and contribute to regional stability.
• Challenges and Imperatives: While advocating for a rules-based order, India faces challenges due to differences within ASEAN. However, India's nuanced approach aims to safeguard its interests while contributing to maintaining peace, stability, and respect for international law in the Indo-Pacific region.

Context:

 The global geopolitical landscape is marked by unprecedented uncertainty, with various regions facing conflicts and leadership crises. This editorial explores the factors contributing to this disarray and the implications for international stability.

Growing Chaos and Absent Leadership:

• Reckless Leadership: Leaders like Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu contribute to ongoing conflicts without a clear strategy for resolution, exacerbating tensions.
• Deterioration of International Order: The rules-based international order, established post-World War II, is faltering. The weakening of Western influence and the rise of new power dynamics have led to increased instability.
• Lack of Global Leadership: Leaders across nations lack the qualities needed to sustain international peace. The absence of influential and responsible leadership worsens conflicts and complicates resolution efforts.

A New Set of Alliances:

• Shift in Power Dynamics: Great power rivalry appears superficial, with conflicts limited to specific regions like Ukraine and Gaza. China's economic challenges and the diminishing influence of the U.S. and Europe have led to the formation of new alliances.
• Economic and Technological Drivers: Economic forecasts signal potential crises in major economies like the U.S. and Europe. Additionally, advancements in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, pose new challenges to conventional power structures.
• Impact of Oil Politics: The alliance between China, Russia, and Iran indicates potential disruptions in global oil politics. Economic sanctions lose effectiveness, and the world faces the prospect of a major economic slowdown.

The Disruptors:

• Technological Disruptions: Advances in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and military surveillance, redefine conventional warfare. Smaller nations leverage technology to challenge traditional military powers.
• Nuclear Threats: With arms control agreements fraying, the development of new nuclear warheads and cruise missiles raises concerns about the escalation of conflicts to nuclear levels.
• Doomsday Predictions: Debates arise regarding the use of low-level battlefield nuclear weapons and the potential escalation to larger nuclear conflicts, highlighting the urgent need for diplomatic resolutions and arms control agreements.

Context:

The conflict against Maoist insurgency, prevalent since the early 2000s, has evolved into a protracted battle characterized by sporadic clashes and security measures. Recent incidents, including the killing of Maoists in Chhattisgarh, underscore the ongoing challenges in addressing this insurgency.

Insurgency Dynamics:

• Diminished Ideological Influence: The Maoists have experienced a decline in ideological appeal and political support, particularly in areas with limited tribal presence and weaker state infrastructure. However, they retain the capacity to target security forces, indicating their resilience despite ideological setbacks.
• Military Response and Tactical Shifts: Security forces have adopted unconventional military tactics and new combing routes to counter Maoist attacks. While these measures have weakened the insurgents' military capabilities, they have not eradicated the underlying threat due to the insurgents' resilience and adaptability.
• Tribal Engagement and Welfare Measures: The Indian state recognizes the importance of engaging with tribal communities through welfare measures to counter Maoist influence. Efforts to expand the reach of the welfare state and address tribal grievances have led to some desertion from Maoist ranks, highlighting the significance of addressing socio-economic disparities.

Challenges and Strategies:

• Military Approach and Civil Society Initiatives: The Indian state has pursued a dual strategy of military action against Maoist cadres while simultaneously engaging in civil society initiatives to promote peace talks and democratic avenues for addressing tribal grievances. However, Maoist refusal to engage in dialogue and persisting with violence prolongs the conflict.
• Complex Terrain and Tribal Discontent: The challenging terrain and pockets of tribal discontent provide fertile ground for Maoist recruitment and insurgency activities. Efforts to address underlying socio-economic grievances and expand state presence in remote areas are crucial for long-term stability.
• Persistent Ideological Resistance: Despite setbacks, Maoists remain committed to their anachronistic ideology, rejecting peaceful engagement with the democratic process. Their reluctance to recognize the aspirations of tribal communities for development and better governance perpetuates the cycle of violence.