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A brewing duel amid Manila’s dual engagement
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Context
The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is adopting a more assertive stance against China in the South China Sea dispute. This shift in foreign policy, coupled with strengthening U.S.-Philippines relations and support from Quad countries, is altering the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. The situation highlights the delicate balance between security concerns and economic interests in the area.
Philippines' Shifting Foreign Policy under President Marcos Jr.:
- Assertive stance: Marcos Jr. criticizes China's "illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions" in the South China Sea at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
- S.-Philippines relationship upswing: Stronger ties since Marcos Jr.'s 2022 election, prioritizing security cooperation over Chinese development funds.
- Heightened tensions: Marcos Jr. warns of potential "act of war" if Filipinos are killed by Chinese forces; China plans to arrest "trespassers" in claimed areas from June 15, 2023.
Strategic Importance of the Philippines in the Indo-Pacific:
- Crucial geographic location: Indispensable actor in U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China's influence.
- Military modernization: $35 billion acquisition list approved in January for enhancing surveillance and power projection capabilities.
- Revitalization of strategic bases: Plans to modernize Subic Bay for naval operations and Clark Air Base for "Joint Air-Sea-Land Operations".
International Support and Dual Engagement Challenges:
- Quad countries' assistance: India delivers BrahMos missiles ($374.96 million deal); Japan provides coastal surveillance radars and funds patrol ships; Australia is the second-largest bilateral grant aid donor.
- S. cautious support: Mutual Defense Treaty since 1951; concerns about opening another front against China.
- Economic reliance on China: $9.1 billion in state-directed finance to previous administrations (2000-2022), creating a challenging dual engagement scenario.
UPSC Mains Questions:
Q. Evaluate the role of Quad partners in enhancing the defense capabilities of the Philippines. What are the implications for regional security in the South China Sea?
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