The Alaska Summit

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Context:

The US is hosting a Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, signalling a potential reset in Washington-Moscow relations after years of confrontation, with significant geopolitical implications for India.

Context and Strategic Setting

Summit after Years of Hostility: The Alaska meeting marks the first in-person US-Russia presidential summit since 2005, occurring against the backdrop of deteriorating ties since 2014 due to Crimea’s annexation and NATO expansion.
Geopolitical Backdrop: Russia’s ties with China have deepened amid Western sanctions, while India’s regional interests have been constrained by the Russia-West conflict.
Trump’s Reset Agenda: The US aims to explore a limited rapprochement with Russia by offering sanctions relief in exchange for cooperation on security and Arctic engagement.

Negotiation Dynamics and Diverging Interests

Peace-for-Profit Logic: Trump envisions de-escalation in exchange for economic concessions, but core disputes over Ukraine, NATO expansion, and military postures remain unresolved.
Commercial and Political Trade-offs: Significant trade packages and possible tariff rollbacks could emerge, though Trump retains tariffs as a strategic tool, potentially against India.
Contradictory Strategic Goals: While Russia seeks durable security guarantees and recognition of its sphere of influence, the US focuses on limiting Chinese leverage over Moscow.

Implications for India

Balancing Act in Great Power Politics: Improved US-Russia ties could ease China-Russia coordination that currently challenges India’s security space.
Trade and Tariff Risks: Even if the summit leads to a US-Russia economic thaw, India might still face tariff measures from Washington as part of Trump’s economic nationalism.
Scope for Strategic Leverage: India can potentially benefit from reduced US-Russia hostility by expanding defence and energy partnerships with both, while maintaining its strategic autonomy.

Practice Question:

Discuss the potential geopolitical and economic implications for India of a US-Russia rapprochement emerging from the Alaska Summit. How should India recalibrate its foreign policy to safeguard its strategic interests?

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