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Intensive Mains Program for IAS 2026
16th June 2025 (10 Topics)

Strait of Hormuz

Context

Heightened tensions between Iran and Israel–U.S. have triggered renewed threats from Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which approximately 20–21 million barrels of oil daily pass (~20–25% of global seaborne oil)

Strait of Hormuz

  • Strategic Importance of the Strait
    • Connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.
    • Facilitates transit of ~1/5 of global oil and 1/3 of LNG Narrowest width ~21 nautical miles; shipping lanes just 3.2?km wide
  • Iran’s Geopolitical Leverage
    • Controls northern maritime approaches, with missiles, fast-attack boats, and mines enabling asymmetric powerthe A2/AD doctrine
    • Historical threats surfaced in 2012, 2019, and 2025 amid sanctions or attacks .
    • UNCLOS stipulates “transit passage” rights, making total blockade illegal—though Iran could still disrupt shipping
  • Global Consequences
    • Even limited disruption could push crude prices above $100/barrel, raising global inflation and impacting energy security
    • Surge in shipping insurance costs and rerouting, as seen with tanker avoidance and convoy measures
    • Initiatives like the EMASoH coalition and strategic reserves may partially stabilize markets
  • Iran’s Strategic Constraints
    • Severe economic self-harm: oil revenue constitutes ~65% of Iranian government earnings; blockade could destabilize its economy and internal stability.
    • Regional tensions: Oman and GCC nations may oppose such moves, with US-led naval deployments ready to reopen closure
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