The long and winding road of India-China relations

In January 2025, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited China for bilateral talks aimed at restoring aspects of India-China relations. This comes after a period of tension since the 2020 Galwan clashes. The meeting resulted in announcements regarding the resumption of key exchanges such as media, think tanks, the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, and bilateral flights.

Reasons Behind Bilateral Agreement

• Post-Galwan De-Escalation: After over four years of strained relations post-2020 clashes, both India and China are aiming to de-escalate tensions and normalize relations, influenced by external pressures like Donald Trump's unpredictable approach to foreign policy.
• Economic Factors: Both nations face economic challenges, which could have incentivized them to seek stability in their bilateral relations to focus on domestic concerns.
• Historic Context: China's previous normalization of ties with India after the 1962 war and post-Tiananmen Square is referenced as a backdrop for the recent thaw in relations, with the Trump factor playing a role in pushing for restoration.

Status of Border Situation (LAC)

• Troop Deployment and Disengagement: Following the 2020 clashes, both sides deployed large numbers of troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). However, there is no official clarity on the status of de-escalation, demilitarization, or withdrawal of troops from key flashpoints like Galwan and Pangong Lake.
• Lack of Communication on Restoration: The Indian government’s silence on these developments has raised concerns about whether China has fully complied with agreements related to troop disengagement and the restoration of the status quo.
• Restoration of Status Quo Ante: India’s position has been that stability and restoration of pre-2020 border conditions should precede any advancement in broader bilateral relations, yet China has urged India to move beyond the border issue.

The Need for Clarity and Caution

• India’s Silence on Progress: The Indian government’s lack of detailed communication on the status of troop withdrawal and border stabilization has created uncertainty, leading to concerns that China’s narrative of “moving on” is gaining traction.
• Challenges in Restoring Normalcy: The restoration of the status quo along the LAC is expected to be a complex, drawn-out process, and it remains unclear whether both nations are progressing adequately toward this goal.
• Caution in Bilateral Engagement: Given the cyclical nature of India-China relations under Xi Jinping and the divergence in worldviews, India should proceed with caution in advancing bilateral relations without first addressing key border security issues.

Practice Question

Q. Analyze the role of border stability in the restoration of normalcy in India-China relations. How can India balance strategic caution with diplomatic engagement in its relations with China post-Galwan?