Northeast India’s Security and Border Management

Northeast India has faced prolonged insurgency, but over the last few decades, parts of the region have witnessed relative peace, facilitating infrastructure and economic development. However, the situation remains complex due to ongoing political developments in neighboring Myanmar, which have had significant security, economic, and humanitarian impacts on India’s northeastern states, particularly Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland.

Political Instability in Myanmar and its Spillover Effects

• Military Coup in Myanmar (2021): The coup in Myanmar led to widespread civil disobedience and armed resistance. The conflict lead to large-scale violence, particularly in the Sagaing Region, Chin, and Kachin States, bordering Northeast India.
• Displacement of Refugees: The violence in Myanmar triggered a large-scale refugee exodus into India. As of 2024, approximately 95,600 refugees from Myanmar have entered India, with the majority fleeing after the coup in 2021. These refugees have created both humanitarian challenges and security concerns within India’s northeastern border states.

Impact on India’s Border Management

• Free Movement Regime (FMR): A border cooperation arrangement that allowed residents within a 16 km radius of the India-Myanmar border to move freely across the border without visas. The regime, initially aimed at promoting cross-border trade and cultural interaction, has been impacted by the recent security dynamics.
• Refugee Crisis and Internal Security: The movement of refugees from Myanmar has led to concerns over ethnic tensions in Manipur, where the influx has aggravated existing disputes between the Meitei and Kuki The situation has also stressed border security and management.
• Economic Disruptions:
  • Moreh, a key border town in Manipur, once a bustling trade hub, has experienced a significant decline in cross-border trade. This has derailed plans for India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral connectivity, affecting Northeast India's potential as a gateway to Southeast Asia.
  • Border Trade and Economic Engagement: Plans to expand economic engagement and trade with Myanmar, as part of India’s Act East Policy, have slowed down due to the volatility in Myanmar.

India’s Policy Responses and the Regional Strategic Landscape

• Abolition of Free Movement Regime: The Indian government has decided to reduce the scope of the FMR in response to internal security concerns, particularly the changing demographic and ethnic dynamics in the Northeast. A new framework allows people within 10 km of the border to cross with a permit at designated entry points.
• China’s Role in Myanmar: Unlike India, China has greater flexibility to engage with Myanmar's ethnic groups and the Tatmadaw due to its permanent membership in the UN Security Council (UNSC). It has leveraged its relationship with Myanmar’s armed groups to tackle cross-border drug syndicates and criminal activity while securing its border with Myanmar.
• Indian Strategic Priorities: India must balance its security, humanitarian relief, and economic growth objectives in the region. Despite the current crisis, India aims to maintain economic connectivity with Southeast Asia, but political instability in Myanmar has led to a delay in regional projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway.

Urgent Measures for Peace and Development

• Humanitarian Assistance: India needs to provide humanitarian relief to refugees and develop healthcare and educational infrastructure in Myanmar's border regions to alleviate the pressure on India’s border states. This will help reduce the influx of refugees seeking basic services in India.
• Engagement with Ethnic Organizations: It is essential to engage ethnic organizations in Myanmar and facilitate dialogue to stabilize the situation and address the root causes of conflict. In the long run, promoting a federal democratic polity in Myanmar can reduce tensions.
• Border Security and Economic Policy: India must enhance border management by securing its borders while ensuring continued economic engagement with Myanmar and Southeast Asia. The goal should be to promote peace and economic cooperation once the security situation stabilizes.