Trump-proofing India-US relations

The current shift in US foreign policy under Donald Trump’s second presidential term has raised concerns in India. His recent comments on Kashmir and Pakistan, lack of structured foreign policy process, and unpredictable leadership style are disrupting long-established strategic understandings between India and the US. This calls for a measured and resilient Indian diplomatic response.

Changing Dynamics Under Triumph Second Term:

• Erosion of Past Strategic Understandings: Trump’s remarks have undermined longstanding bilateral norms, especially on non-intervention in the Kashmir issue, reversing a two-decade-old consensus across US administrations.
• Breakdown of Institutional Policymaking: Unlike his first term, Trump now operates with minimal institutional inputs—many top diplomatic positions remain vacant, and policy is driven solely by presidential instinct.
• Personal Interests Influencing Policy: There are unverified claims of Trump family’s business ties in Pakistan’s crypto sector, pointing to a disturbing overlap between personal business and state interests in shaping foreign policy.

India’s strategic Claim and Response:

• Experience in Crisis Management: India has previously managed major crises in US relations, including during Clinton’s Kashmir focus and the nuclear sanctions era, and is equipped to respond without panic.
• Avoiding Counterproductive Public Reactions: Delhi is avoiding public confrontations or rebuttals, reflecting confidence in its status as the world’s fourth-largest economy, and engaging with Washington on specific merits of each issue.
• Expanding Outreach within the US System: India plans to intensify engagement with US Congress, civil society, and business lobbies to bypass executive volatility—a strategy successfully used by China.

Strategic Diversification and Internal Reforms

• Strengthening Non-US Partnerships: India is building deeper ties with Europe, especially countries like France, Denmark, and Greece, which have supported India’s stance on Kashmir and broader global issues.
• Aligning with Disenchanted US Allies: With Trump’s policies disrupting alliances across Europe and Asia, India finds shared strategic space with traditional US partners seeking to diversify relations.
• Betting on Domestic Capabilities: India’s ultimate shield lies in economic and technological self-reliance—successes like Operation Sindoor highlight the need for long-overdue structural reforms to build internal strength.

Practice Question:

Q. "Critically examine the strategic imperatives for India to maintain stable relations with the United States amid unpredictable leadership. How can internal capacity-building and diversification of global partnerships insulate India from external shocks?"