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Unification of the Maoist Faction in Nepal and its implications for India?

Recently Ten Maoist parties and factions in Nepal have united under the banner of the biggest party, Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda.

Who are the Maoists

• Maoists are a ideological Group in Nepalese Politics who believe in the ideology of Former Chinese President Mao-Tse Tung.They are Far Left group and till 2006 they were fighting the war with the Nepalese Government to usurp the power. The Maoists’ original aim was to benefit the poor and marginalised sectors of Nepali society by uprooting the monarchy and feudalism. Due to the war 16000 people died between 1996 and 2006.However due to India,s effort a peace deal was signed between them and the Nepalese Government and after the deal was signed Maoists gave up the arms and entered the democratic process.

• With Time Maoist movement was divided into number of factions due to ideological clash between the leading  personalities of the Movement with Some arguing for more liberal approach and others still arguing for a radical approach to achieve the aims and objectives of the movement. This division has weakened the Maoist groups in last few years.

Which Factors Led to the Unification

• The six different Maoist factions have been demanding that all insurgency-era rights violation cases should be handled by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons. 

• More than 16,000 people were killed during the decade-long insurgency that also displaced hundreds of thousands of others. The insurgency that started in 1996 ended in 2006 when the Maoists signed a peace agreement with the then government. 

• In March, Nepal’s Supreme Court barred the country’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission from investigating those cases of human rights violations related to the decade-long left-wing insurgency which were already in the process of being prosecuted. The decision opened up the prospect that the Maoist leadership and cadres could face legal action for killings and disappearances. Thus Nepal’s besieged Maoists believe they have to stand together, to avoid being picked off one by one.

Likely Consequence for India

• For India, the Maoist unification will have disquieting short-term consequences. In 2006, when Nepal’s largely India-brokered peace process began, the Maoists had softened their historic hostility to their western neighbor. Now, though, it is probable the new Maoist alliance will use nationalism to cement together their ranks..

• Earlier this month, Prime Minister K.P. Oli’s government almost collapsed after Prachanda threatened to withdraw support; the Unification would strength the Hands of Prachanda and will allow him to exercise even greater influence over the course of events. Prime Minister Oli, who has used anti-India polemic to ward off threats from opponents in Nepal’s plains and from the Congress party, is likely to find it hard to resist the temptation to engage in competitive anti-India polemics. Which Would Mean that Most of the mainstream Nepalese Parties  would resort to more Anti-Indian Rhetoric in near future, this could further strain the already Fragile Indo-Nepal Relations.

What Should India Do?

• The best course for New Delhi will be to avoid provocation — and focus, instead, on deepening its strategic engagement with Nepal’s economy and people. 

• Though greater Chinese involvement in Nepal’s economy and political life is inevitable — geography makes better road and rail links between Nepal and China a matter of time — New Delhi should focus on securing opportunities through this enhanced regional connectivity, not whipping the tide to try and force it back. 

• Nepal’s people, moreover, are profoundly unlikely to be seduced by anti-India polemic for any length of time: The Oli government’s spectacular lack of performance on earthquake relief, and its poor record of governance, are what it will be judged on, as long as New Delhi avoids walking into the trap of a confrontation. In the midst of the coming battle in Nepal, New Delhi’s best course is to lie low — and let the country’s people settle their future. 


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