On India-China ties, Delhi takes one step forward, two steps back

The 23rd meeting of Special Representatives (SRs) on the India-China boundary question took place in Beijing, reflecting the ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve border issues. Despite regular meetings and the disengagement process in Eastern Ladakh, the latest statements from both sides highlight persistent differences, especially regarding expectations and outcomes of bilateral negotiations. India’s diplomatic approach is seen to be evolving, with growing caution on its part compared to China’s more assertive stance.

Diplomatic Divergence Between India and China

• Indian Statement Reflecting Caution: India's latest statement emphasized the ongoing frictions since 2020 and highlighted the progress on disengagement and the need for effective border management, underlining diplomatic and military mechanisms rather than troop-to-troop exchanges.
• Chinese Statement on Border Solutions: China’s statement focused on a six-point consensus on border-related issues, which the Indian side did not acknowledge, signaling differing interpretations of the agreements and their implementations.
• Shift in Indian Expectations: India’s reference to seeking a “fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable framework” for resolving the boundary issue contrasts with existing bilateral agreements like the 2005 Agreement, which China has repeatedly violated.

Changing Dynamics in India-China Relations

• Strategic Patience and Resolve: While India has sought to maintain diplomatic pressure on China, there are concerns that India may lose focus on long-term objectives, potentially prioritizing short-term interests over consistent pressure on China’s actions on the border.
• China’s Strategic Patience: China’s strategic patience is seen in its ability to push India to lower expectations and back down from stronger positions, even though India's stance on boundary issues was morally and politically justifiable.
• De-escalation Challenges: The de-escalation process post-disengagement is expected to be slow, and India’s failure to take a proactive stance during the 2020 violations by China raises concerns about the future course of negotiations and the effectiveness of India’s diplomatic responses.

Implications for India’s Foreign Policy and Global Positioning

• China’s Confidence on the Indian Front: With India’s lack of decisive responses to Chinese actions, China may feel more secure on its front with India, potentially shifting focus to other territorial disputes without fearing significant resistance from India.
• Pressure from Global Partners: The absence of effective intervention by India in reducing Chinese pressure on other nations with territorial disputes could lead to growing pressure from global partners like the US, especially under the Trump administration's tough stance on China.
• India's Strategic Autonomy at Risk: India’s cautious approach risks confirming doubts about its ability to act decisively against China, potentially weakening its position in the global geopolitical arena and eroding its strategic autonomy.

Practice Question:

Q. Assess the implications of India-China diplomatic exchanges on the boundary issue, focusing on the evolving Indian stance and China’s strategic objectives. How can India recalibrate its foreign policy to ensure long-term security and maintain strategic autonomy in its relationship with China?