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21st December 2024 (10 Topics)

Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Program

Context

The United States sanctioned four Pakistani entities on charges of contributing to nuclear-armed Islamabad's long-range ballistic missile program. A senior White House official recently stated that Pakistan's developing long-range ballistic missile capabilities could eventually allow it to strike targets beyond South Asia, including the United States, making it an “emerging threat” to U.S. national security.

Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Program

  • Pakistan, which conducted its first nuclear test in 1998, now possesses an estimated 170 nuclear warheads.
  • The country has developed a wide array of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads, which increases the stakes in the region and raises concerns about missile proliferation.
  • Missile Development: Pakistan is increasingly developing long-range ballistic missile systems with the ability to strike targets much farther than just South Asia. These missiles are being equipped with larger rocket motors, indicating an advancement towards missiles that could potentially reach the U.S.

Impact on U.S.-Pakistan Relations

  • Deteriorating Relations: The U.S.-Pakistan relationship has worsened significantly after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistan's growing ties with China, coupled with the U.S. rapprochement with India, have further strained ties. Pakistan sees the S.-India strategic partnership as a challenge to its own regional security interests.
  • S. Concerns: U.S. officials are questioning why Pakistan would seek to develop missile systems that could be used to target countries outside the region, such as the U.S. Pakistan’s growing missile capabilities could also undermine global security by contributing to nuclear arms proliferation.

Fact Box:

Current State of Nuclear Warheads (As of 2024)

  • Nuclear-Weapon States (NWS) under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT): The five officially recognized nuclear-weapon states under the NPT are: United States, Russia, China, France,  United Kingdom.
  • Total Nuclear Warheads Worldwide: Approximately 12,100 nuclear warheads across all states with nuclear capabilities.
  • The United States and Russia possess the largest share of global nuclear stockpiles, with ongoing modernization of their nuclear forces.
  • Other countries like China, India, and Pakistan have smaller stockpiles but are actively enhancing their nuclear capabilities, including missile delivery systems.
  • North Korea and Iran remain significant proliferation concerns due to their ongoing nuclear development activities and potential for expanding their arsenals.

Estimates of Nuclear Stockpiles:

  • Russia
    • Strategic warheads: 1,549 warheads deployed on 540 delivery systems (ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers) as of September 2022 (New START data).
    • Non-strategic warheads: Estimated 1,000–2,000 warheads (not limited by the New START treaty).
    • Total stockpile: Approximately 4,380 nuclear warheads as of March 2024 (including deployed and retired warheads awaiting dismantlement).
  • United States
    • Strategic warheads: 1,419 deployed on 662 delivery systems (ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers) as of March 2023 (New START data).
    • B-61 gravity bombs: Estimated 100 forward-deployed bombs at NATO bases across Europe.
    • Total stockpile: 3,748 active and inactive warheads as of September 2023 (including 2,000 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement).
    • Total warheads (FAS estimate): Approximately 5,044 warheads as of May 2024 (including retired warheads).
  • China
    • Strategic warheads: 310 warheads deployed on 206 launchers (ICBMs and SLBMs).
    • Total warheads: Estimated 440 warheads as of 2023 (with projections reaching up to 1,000 by 2030).
  • France
    • Total stockpile: Approximately 290 operational warheads, deployed on 98 delivery systems, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and air-launched cruise missiles.
    • Modernization: France continues to modernize its nuclear forces but does not plan to increase the size of its stockpile.
  • United Kingdom
    • Total stockpile: Approximately 225 warheads, with 120 operational warheads on 48 SLBMs and 105 in storage.
    • Sea-based deterrent: The UK exclusively relies on sea-based nuclear deterrence with its Vanguard-class Trident submarines.

Non-NPT Nuclear Weapons Possessors

These states have developed nuclear weapons outside the NPT framework:

  • India
    • Total stockpile: Estimated to have up to 172 nuclear warheads.
    • India tested its first nuclear weapon in 1974, sparking a nuclear arms race with Pakistan.
  • Pakistan
    • Total stockpile: Estimated to have approximately 170 nuclear warheads.
    • Pakistan’s nuclear program was a direct response to India’s nuclear weapons development.
  • Israel
    • Total stockpile: Estimated to have around 90 nuclear warheads, with fissile material for about 200.
    • Israel has never officially confirmed or denied possessing nuclear weapons and follows a policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear arsenal.
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