GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

The United States sanctioned four Pakistani entities on charges of contributing to nuclear-armed Islamabad's long-range ballistic missile program. A senior White House official recently stated that Pakistan's developing long-range ballistic missile capabilities could eventually allow it to strike targets beyond South Asia, including the United States, making it an “emerging threat” to U.S. national security.

Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Program

• Pakistan, which conducted its first nuclear test in 1998, now possesses an estimated 170 nuclear warheads.
• The country has developed a wide array of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads, which increases the stakes in the region and raises concerns about missile proliferation.
• Missile Development: Pakistan is increasingly developing long-range ballistic missile systems with the ability to strike targets much farther than just South Asia. These missiles are being equipped with larger rocket motors, indicating an advancement towards missiles that could potentially reach the U.S.

Impact on U.S.-Pakistan Relations

• Deteriorating Relations: The U.S.-Pakistan relationship has worsened significantly after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistan's growing ties with China, coupled with the U.S. rapprochement with India, have further strained ties. Pakistan sees the S.-India strategic partnership as a challenge to its own regional security interests.
• S. Concerns: U.S. officials are questioning why Pakistan would seek to develop missile systems that could be used to target countries outside the region, such as the U.S. Pakistan’s growing missile capabilities could also undermine global security by contributing to nuclear arms proliferation.

Eric Garcetti, the US Ambassador to India, recently spoke at an event organized by the US-India Business Council (USIBC). His comments were aimed at improving trade relations between India and the United States.

Key Points:

• Call to Lower Tariffs: Garcetti emphasized the importance of reducing tariffs (taxes on imports) between India and the US. He said, “We need, together, to lower tariffs, not see them go up.”
• Lowering tariffs would lead to more balanced and fair trade between the two countries, and also increase trade volume.
• President Donald Trump’s Trade Stance: Donald Trump, the US President-elect at the time, had previously threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on India.
  • Reciprocal tariffs mean that if India charges the US high tariffs (like on American goods), the US would charge India the same amount on their goods.
• Trump highlighted this tit-for-tat approach, saying if India imposes a 100% tariff on American products, then the US would impose the same tariff on Indian products. He also mentioned other countries like Brazil who have high tariffs, adding that this policy would be applied to all countries with high tariffs.
• Garcetti stressed the need for collaboration between the US and India, especially in areas like training and talent-sharing. He suggested that both countries should work together to meet the needs of companies in the Indo-Pacific region.

India-US Trade Relations

• The US remains India’s largest trade partner, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $120 billion in FY24, slightly surpassing India’s trade with China.
• Unlike China, though, India enjoys a favourable trade relationship with the US, making it a critical source of foreign exchange.
• India was the sixth-largest beneficiary of the US-China trade war, with a $36.8 billion increase in exports driven by growth in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods.
• Indian companies had invested USD 3.4 billion in the US in the past year.
• India lost duty-free access under the decades-old Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programme in 2019, during Trump’s first presidency. India, previously the largest beneficiary, saw tariff-free benefits on approximately $5.7 billion worth of exports to the US.
• Despite efforts to diversify exports, India’s dependence on the US has grown significantly over the past decade.
• According to official 2022–23 data, the US accounted for 18% of India’s exports, up from 10 per cent in 2010–11.

India’s undersea cable network is expanding rapidly, driven by growing data usage and geopolitical considerations. The country is set to launch two new major undersea cable systems, the India Asia Xpress (IAX) and the India Europe Xpress (IEX), which will further bolster India’s global internet connectivity and strategic importance in the digital world.

Key Details of the New Cable Systems:

• India Asia Xpress (IAX): It will connect Chennai and Mumbai with Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia in Asia. It is owned by Reliance Jio, with a strategic investment from China Mobile.
• India Europe Xpress (IEX): It will connect Chennai and Mumbai with France, Greece, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Djibouti. It is aimed at improving India's connectivity with Europe and the Middle East.
• These two systems are 15,000 km long combined, and will add to the dozens of other undersea cables that land in India, mainly in Mumbai and Chennai.
• These expansions are not only about handling growing internet traffic but also reflect India’s increasing geopolitical ambition in the realm of undersea cable networks.

Significance of the undersea cable network

• A subsea or submarine cable is a fiber-optic cable laid in the ocean, connecting two or more landing points.
• The expansion of India’s undersea cable network comes at a time when submarine cable security is becoming a global concern.
• The new cables will help strengthen India’s defense strategy by ensuring the resilience of these cables against:
  • Physical damage (e.g., natural disasters, sabotage).
  • Cyberattacks from state or non-state actors.
• India’s growing role as a maritime cable network player is expected to focus on key areas like the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, where cable networks are vulnerable. India’s proactive involvement in these regions is anticipated to have significant geopolitical implications.
• Given India’s growing dependence on digital connectivity, submarine cables have become indispensable for its international communications.
• The country is connected globally through multiple submarine cable systems, such as the Southeast Asia-Middle East-Western Europe (SEA-ME-WE) system, the Bay of Bengal Gateway (BBG) system, and the India-Middle East-Western Europe (IMEWE) system.
• Choke Points and Vulnerabilities: The issue of choke points in global submarine cable networks is another concern.
  • For example, all cables from Mumbai and Chennai to Singapore pass through the Malacca Strait, which poses a risk if there were to be a major incident there, potentially disrupting all four cables simultaneously.
  • To mitigate this, there are discussions around exploring alternative routes, like connecting India and Singapore by passing the Malacca Strait. However, such a solution is still in development.

Billionaire Elon Musk has recently denied claims that his space company SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet technology is being used by militants in Manipur, following the discovery of Starlink devices seized by the Indian Army and police.

What is Starlink?

• Starlink is a satellite internet system launched by SpaceX.
• It uses a constellation of low Earth orbit satellites to provide high-speed, low-latency broadband internet to users, especially in remote or underserved areas.
• The system is designed to allow activities such as streaming, video calls, gaming, and other data-heavy services.
• How it works: Starlink satellites orbit at around 550 km above the Earth and provide global coverage, but the company restricts service in certain countries and regions, where it does not have regulatory approval.
• Geographical restrictions: If Starlink is not authorized in a specific country, the satellites will block communication with devices within those regions.

Can Militants Use Starlink in India?

The primary question is whether militants in Manipur can effectively use Starlink in India, given that the service is not officially authorized there. Several factors affect this:

• Starlink's Geographical Restrictions: Starlink devices are programmed to not function in areas where the service is not allowed, based on geographic location data from the terminal.
• Possibility of Using Foreign Devices: If a Starlink terminal is bought abroad, for example from a country where the service is authorized, it could potentially be used in India.
  • However, the device has a built-in geographic location identifier, which could prevent it from operating in restricted regions if the system detects it’s in an unauthorized country.
• Use of VPNs: Starlink supports the use of VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) to access the internet, which could potentially allow users to bypass regional restrictions. However, using a VPN can impact performance and might not guarantee seamless access.
• Enabling Service Despite Restrictions: The possibility that Starlink devices can be bought outside India and used within the country raises concerns about the control over satellite signals. Musk himself has claimed that Starlink deactivates devices used by unauthorized parties after an investigation.

Regulatory and Legal Concerns:

India has strict regulations around satellite-based communication systems. For instance:

• Under the Indian Wireless Act and Indian Telegraph Act, the use of satellite phones and services like Starlink without proper authorization is illegal.
• Devices like Iridium satellite phones have been seized in India when used illegally, particularly in conflict zones such as Kashmir.

The Indian government is also wary about the potential misuse of Starlink by non-state actors or militants, especially in sensitive regions like Manipur.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah highlighted the significance of the Siliguri corridor as a crucial link to Northeast India and said that the presence of Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) in the area comes as an assurance to the entire country.

About Siliguri Corridor

• The Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken's Neck, is a narrow stretch of land in West Bengal that serves as the crucial land link between India’s northeastern states and the rest of the country.
• At its narrowest, it is only 17 km wide, making it a strategically sensitive region.
• Geographical Location
  • Borders: The Siliguri Corridor is bordered by Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan.
  • Route: It stretches from the Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, and Terai areas of West Bengal towards India's northeastern states like Assam, Sikkim, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, and others.
• Why is it Called the 'Chicken's Neck'?
  • The corridor is called the Chicken's Neck due to its narrow width and its significance as the only land route connecting India's northeastern states with the rest of the country. The name evokes an image of a vulnerable point, much like the neck of a chicken, where any disruption could cut off access to the northeastern region.

Strategic Importance of the Siliguri Corridor

• Geopolitical Importance: The Siliguri Corridor is the only bridge connecting India’s northeastern states to the mainland. It is critical for both military and civilian access. It is the gateway for India's movement of troops, supplies, and other military logistics to the eastern border areas, including those near China and Bangladesh.
• Economic and Commercial Importance: The Siliguri Corridor is a hub for trade, commerce, and tourism for several regions, including West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.
• Connectivity for Rail and Road Networks: The Siliguri Corridor hosts a significant rail and road network connecting West Bengal to the northeastern states, including Assam, Nagaland, and Sikkim.
• Military Significance:
  • The corridor is strategically important for military purposes as well. It connects military formations along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), especially those opposite China.
  • From New Jalpaiguri (NJP) Railway Station, multiple rail links extend towards important military locations. One of the critical routes moves towards Guwahati in Assam, and from there, a road network continues to the strategically important town of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh.
  • This connectivity is essential for moving defense personnel and supplies to regions along the LAC and other sensitive borders.

On 21st December 2024, the world observed its first-ever World Meditation Day, a significant milestone following the United Nations General Assembly's resolution.

What is Meditation?

• According to the United Nations, meditation is an ancient practice that focuses on the present moment, and is deeply rooted in religious, yogic, and secular traditions across cultures.
• It has been practiced for thousands of years and, today, it is widely embraced as a powerful tool for mental health and personal well-being.
• Meditation is most commonly defined as a practice where an individual uses techniques like mindfulness, focused attention, or concentration to train the mind.
• The goal is to reach a state of mental clarity, emotional calmness, and physical relaxation.
• Meditation has various forms, each designed to cultivate calm, clarity, and balance.

A recent study on avian diversity at Bordoibam-Bilmukh Bird Sanctuary (BBBS) in northeastern Assam has revealed a significant decline in bird species over the past 27 years. The study, published in the Journal of Threatened Taxa, highlights a 72% decrease in the number of bird species in the sanctuary since 1997.

Key-Findings

• Decline in Bird Species:
  • In 1997, 167 avian species were recorded in the sanctuary.
  • In the recent survey (2022-2024), only 47 species across 16 orders and 29 families were observed, marking a 85% decline.
  • This decline has been especially sharp since 2018, according to the study.
  • A 2011 survey recorded 133 species, including 86 resident species, 23 migratory species, and 24 local migrants.
• Anthropogenic Causes: The study cites several human activities contributing to the decline in bird species:
  • Overfishing and excessive harvesting of aquatic plants.
  • Poaching of birds such as the lesser whistling duck, fulvous whistling duck, white-breasted waterhen, and yellow-footed green pigeon.
  • Bird egg collection.
  • High-decibel machinery used for agriculture near water bodies, disturbing the birds’ natural habitats.
  • The sanctuary is also being used as a pasture area, further disturbing the local bird populations.
• Impact of Habitat Degradation: The degradation of wetland habitats leads to:
  • Decline in the water table.
  • Disruption of the food chain and nutrient cycles.
  • A negative impact on the migratory bird populations.
• This not only harms the bird species but also disrupts the entire ecosystem, affecting human populations too.

The 23rd meeting of Special Representatives (SRs) on the India-China boundary question took place in Beijing, reflecting the ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve border issues. Despite regular meetings and the disengagement process in Eastern Ladakh, the latest statements from both sides highlight persistent differences, especially regarding expectations and outcomes of bilateral negotiations. India’s diplomatic approach is seen to be evolving, with growing caution on its part compared to China’s more assertive stance.

Diplomatic Divergence Between India and China

• Indian Statement Reflecting Caution: India's latest statement emphasized the ongoing frictions since 2020 and highlighted the progress on disengagement and the need for effective border management, underlining diplomatic and military mechanisms rather than troop-to-troop exchanges.
• Chinese Statement on Border Solutions: China’s statement focused on a six-point consensus on border-related issues, which the Indian side did not acknowledge, signaling differing interpretations of the agreements and their implementations.
• Shift in Indian Expectations: India’s reference to seeking a “fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable framework” for resolving the boundary issue contrasts with existing bilateral agreements like the 2005 Agreement, which China has repeatedly violated.

Changing Dynamics in India-China Relations

• Strategic Patience and Resolve: While India has sought to maintain diplomatic pressure on China, there are concerns that India may lose focus on long-term objectives, potentially prioritizing short-term interests over consistent pressure on China’s actions on the border.
• China’s Strategic Patience: China’s strategic patience is seen in its ability to push India to lower expectations and back down from stronger positions, even though India's stance on boundary issues was morally and politically justifiable.
• De-escalation Challenges: The de-escalation process post-disengagement is expected to be slow, and India’s failure to take a proactive stance during the 2020 violations by China raises concerns about the future course of negotiations and the effectiveness of India’s diplomatic responses.

Implications for India’s Foreign Policy and Global Positioning

• China’s Confidence on the Indian Front: With India’s lack of decisive responses to Chinese actions, China may feel more secure on its front with India, potentially shifting focus to other territorial disputes without fearing significant resistance from India.
• Pressure from Global Partners: The absence of effective intervention by India in reducing Chinese pressure on other nations with territorial disputes could lead to growing pressure from global partners like the US, especially under the Trump administration's tough stance on China.
• India's Strategic Autonomy at Risk: India’s cautious approach risks confirming doubts about its ability to act decisively against China, potentially weakening its position in the global geopolitical arena and eroding its strategic autonomy.

Practice Question:

Q. Assess the implications of India-China diplomatic exchanges on the boundary issue, focusing on the evolving Indian stance and China’s strategic objectives. How can India recalibrate its foreign policy to ensure long-term security and maintain strategic autonomy in its relationship with China?

Nepal’s increasing alignment with China, marked by the signing of a framework agreement on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli's recent visit to Beijing, has raised concerns in India. The agreement deepens Nepal's ties with China, potentially diminishing India’s influence in the region, especially as the BRI passes through Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), a point of contention for India.

Nepal’s Growing Alignment with China

• Signing of BRI Agreement: Nepal’s agreement to cooperate on China’s Belt and Road Initiative marks a significant step in Nepal-China relations, despite India’s opposition due to sovereignty concerns over PoK. This deepens China’s economic and strategic footprint in Nepal.
• Economic Implications for India: Nepal’s increasing economic cooperation with China could reduce India’s dominance in Nepal’s trade. India remains Nepal’s largest trading partner, but the growing ties with China are likely to alter this balance in the long term.
• Opening of Chinese Financial Institutions: The BRI agreement also includes provisions for Chinese banks and financial institutions to open branches in Nepal, expanding China’s financial influence and potentially reducing Nepal’s economic dependence on India.

Impact on India’s Strategic Interests

• Diminishing Indian Influence: Nepal's shift towards China risks eroding India’s traditional influence over Kathmandu, which has historically been linked to geography, economic trade, and security cooperation. The BRI’s expansion into Nepal will further consolidate China’s position in the region.
• Buddhism and Shared Heritage: Nepal’s increasing acceptance of China's efforts to promote Buddhism as a shared heritage could undermine India's attempts to build cultural and diplomatic ties based on the same heritage, adding a cultural dimension to the geopolitical competition between the two countries.
• Nepal’s Strategic Calculations: Nepal’s engagement with China also includes hopes for the completion of infrastructure projects under the BRI, which could enhance regional connectivity but simultaneously increase Nepal’s strategic dependence on China.

Geopolitical Consequences for India and the US

• India’s Concerns over Sovereignty: The BRI’s route through PoK presents a direct challenge to India’s sovereignty, as it involves infrastructural projects in disputed territories. India’s strategic interests are further threatened by Nepal’s growing closeness with China.
• US and Nepal’s Geopolitical Equation: The United States, which had successfully engaged Nepal in its Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact for infrastructure development, may now face challenges in countering China’s broader BRI presence in Nepal. Nepal’s tilt towards China could complicate US-Nepal relations as well.
• Regional Stability: The increasing Chinese influence in Nepal could affect regional stability, with both India and the US closely monitoring the implications of this growing relationship, especially given the strategic location of Nepal between India and China.

Practice Question:

Q. Evaluate the geopolitical implications of Nepal’s growing ties with China, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, for India’s strategic interests and regional security. How can India recalibrate its policy to counter this growing influence?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Kuwait on December 21-22, marking the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 43 years. The visit aims to strengthen bilateral ties between India and Kuwait, addressing gaps in India’s engagement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region and enhancing cooperation across various sectors. The visit follows the cancellation of Modi's scheduled visit in January 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Significance of Kuwait’s Strategic Role

• Geopolitical Importance: Despite its small size, Kuwait holds significant strategic value due to its location at the north-east of the Persian Gulf, sharing borders with Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and hosting important American military bases.
• Economic and Energy Power: Kuwait is a founding member of OPEC and has the sixth-largest oil reserves globally. Its wealth is bolstered by the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), which manages one of the largest sovereign wealth funds valued at $924 billion.
• Neutral Diplomatic Stance: Kuwait has historically maintained a neutral position on regional conflicts and has served as an intermediary in resolving disputes within the Gulf region, enhancing its diplomatic role.

Bilateral Ties and Existing Cooperation

• Historical and Cultural Links: India was one of the first countries to establish diplomatic ties with Kuwait in 1961, and the two countries share deep historical and cultural ties, with the Indian community being the largest expatriate group in Kuwait.
• Trade and Energy Relations: India’s bilateral trade with Kuwait during FY 2023-24 was $10.47 billion, with Kuwait being the sixth-largest supplier of crude oil to India, accounting for about 3% of India’s total energy needs.
• People-to-People Ties: The Indian expatriate community in Kuwait plays a vital role in fostering bilateral relations, with over a million Indians living there. Cultural exchanges like the "Festival of India" and the ‘Namaste Kuwait’ radio show reflect the strong people-to-people connections.

Opportunities to Elevate Bilateral Ties

• Strategic Partnerships: PM Modi’s visit is seen as an opportunity to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, including cooperation in defense and infrastructure development under Kuwait’s ‘Vision 2035’.
• Investments and Infrastructure Development: Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund can further invest in India through agreements with the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), and India can assist in building infrastructure in Kuwait, including setting up higher educational institutions and hospitals.
• Enhanced Cooperation in Emerging Sectors: The visit opens avenues for further cooperation in space programs, including satellite launches for Kuwait, and cooperation on climate action initiatives like the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and disaster-resilient infrastructure.

Practice Question:

Q. Analyze the strategic importance of Kuwait in India’s foreign policy framework, particularly in the context of energy security, economic cooperation, and regional stability. How can India further elevate its bilateral ties with Kuwait?