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AI Boosts Weather Forecasting
Context:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has expanded the use of AI/ML-based models and launched Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS) to improve localized weather predictions up to the Gram Panchayat level.
Institutional Framework
- India Meteorological Department (IMD): Apex body for meteorology, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
- MoES Initiatives: Establishment of AI/ML/DL research at IITM Pune, creation of GPU-enabled computing infrastructure, and collaborations with IITs, IIITs, ISRO, DRDO, and MeitY.
Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Applications in Forecasting
- Cyclone Monitoring: Advanced Dvorak Technique (AiDT), AI-based models from ECMWF.
- Forecasting Areas: Short-range global forecasting, precipitation downscaling, fog, lightning/thunderstorm, fire location.
- Deep Learning Models: Improving global precipitation within Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems.
- MausamGPT: AI-based chatbot being developed as a climate service advisor for farmers.
New Forecasting Systems
- Gram Panchayat Level Weather Forecasting (GPLWF):
- Forecasts at micro-level for farmers using multi-model ensemble technique.
- Accessible via e-Gramswaraj, Meri Panchayat App, e-Manchitra, Mausamgram.
- Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS):
- Launched in May 2025.
- Resolution:6 km (vs 12 km in earlier GFS).
- Provides rainfall forecasts up to 10 days at Panchayat/cluster level.
- CFSv2 Model: Provides extended range forecasts (up to 4 weeks).
Dissemination of Information
- Apps & Platforms:Meghdoot, Mausam, WhatsApp, Facebook, e-Gramswaraj.
- Integration: With IT platforms of 18 State Governments.
- Agromet Advisories: Issued twice a week through AMFUs covering 127 agroclimatic zones.
Computing Infrastructure
- High Power Computing System (HPCS) with 22 PetaFLOPS capacity.
- Dedicated GPUs (A100, H100) for AI/ML research in weather prediction.
Significance
- Enhances accuracy, timeliness, and localization of forecasts.
- Critical for farmers, fishermen, disaster management authorities.
- Supports climate resilience, food security, and disaster risk reduction.
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