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Weather Forecasting during Monsoon
Context:
IMD reported enhanced accuracy in monsoon forecasts (2021–2024) using Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) and Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS).
Multi-Model Ensemble (MME):
- Adopted in 2021 for improved monsoon prediction.
- Combines multiple climate forecast models to reduce error and uncertainty.
- Accuracy improved significantly: 2.28% average error (2021–24) vs. 7.5% (2017–20).
Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS):
- Launched in May 2025.
- High-resolution (6 km vs. earlier 12 km in GFS).
- Forecasts rainfall events up to 10 days (short and medium range).
- Provides forecasts at panchayat/cluster level.
Technological Support:
- Radar products (DWRs Karaikal& Chennai).
- Satellite data (10-minute to 3-hour intervals).
- End-to-end GIS-based Decision Support System (DSS) for early warnings.
Mission Mausam (2024–26):
- Cabinet-approved in 2024; launched in Jan 2025.
- Goal: Make India a “Weather-ready and Climate-smart Nation.”
- Focus areas: advanced HPC, AI/ML applications, next-gen radars, profilers, satellites, Earth system models, DSS, and last-mile connectivity.
Dissemination System:
- Multi-channel: social media, mobile apps, Common Alert Protocol, WhatsApp, APIs.
- Impact: Reduced death tolls in vulnerable rural & coastal regions due to timely evacuation.
Institutional Role:
- IMD, Pune (CRU) and RMC, Chennai lead localized forecasts for Tamil Nadu and cyclone-prone Cuddalore.
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