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Asteroid 2024 YR4
Context
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was recently identified as a near-Earth asteroid (NEO) with a small but notable probability of colliding with the Moon in December 2032. While it initially raised concerns about a possible impact with the Earth, newer and more refined observations by NASA and other agencies ruled out that threat. However, the possibility of it striking the Moon remains.
About
- Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be 65 meters wide — about the height of a 10-storey building.
- By comparison, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs was about 10 kilometers wide.
- Though not big enough to trigger mass extinction, an asteroid of this size can cause significant damage — especially if it hits a populated area or a sensitive celestial body like the
- The asteroid is not classified as “Potentially Hazardous” by standard criteria, because such classification applies only to:
- Asteroids over 140 meters in size,
- Whose orbits come within 05 AU (astronomical units) of Earth’s orbit.
- However, smaller asteroids can still pose local to regional threats — as seen with the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013, injuring over 1,000 people despite being just 20 meters wide.
- What If It Hits the Moon? If YR4 does strike the Moon:
- It will form a crater 500 to 2,000 meters wide — a relatively large impact on the lunar surface.
- The energy released would be equivalent to 340 times the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
- The Moon’s orbit will not change, because its mass is massive compared to YR4.
- There could be a visible flash, especially if the impact is on the side of the Moon visible from Earth.
- Tracking of such objects: Telescopes like ATLAS, Pan-STARRS, and NEOWISE scan the sky continuously.
- Tool for hazardous objects: The NASA Sentry system maintains a dynamic list of potentially hazardous objects, using tools like the Torino Scale:
- 0 means no danger.
- 10 means certain, global catastrophe.
- YR4 once had a rating of 3, but is now downgraded as mostly harmless.
- Planetary defense: NASA’s DART mission in 2022 successfully deflected an asteroid (Dimorphos) by crashing into it — proving we can alter trajectories of space rocks.
What is an Asteroid?
Near-Earth object (NEO)
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