12th May 2025 (12 Topics)
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Total Fertility Rate
Context
New data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) 2021 has revealed that fertility rates in South India have fallen more sharply than previously estimated. All five southern states—Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka—now report Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) between 1.5 and 1.6, which is significantly below the replacement level of 2.1.
Key-findings
- India’s Overall Fertility Rate has declined below replacement level. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for India as a whole is 2.0, as per SRS 2021.
- This is below the replacement level of 1, which is the average number of children per woman needed to maintain the population without migration.
- South India Shows Steepest Decline in Fertility: All five southern states—Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka—now report TFRs between 1.5 and 1.6. This marks a sharp drop compared to the previous National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data.
- Tamil Nadu and Kerala: 1.5 (down from 1.8)
- Andhra Pradesh: 1.5 (down from 1.7)
- Telangana: 1.6 (down from 1.82)
- Karnataka: 1.6 (down from 1.7)
- Northern and Central States Continue to Have Higher Fertility Rates: Fertility remains significantly above replacement level in several large states:
- Bihar: Highest TFR at 3.0
- Uttar Pradesh: 2.7
- Madhya Pradesh: 2.6
- Rajasthan: 2.4
- Jharkhand: 2.3
- These figures show that India’s demographic landscape is deeply regionalized, with differing rates of fertility decline.
- Crude Birth Rates (CBRs) Reveal Stark Regional Divide: CBR measures the number of births per 1,000 people annually.
- Northern and central states continue to record high CBRs :
- Bihar: 6
- Uttar Pradesh: 8
- Madhya Pradesh: 8
- In contrast, southern states show much lower CBRs:
- Kerala: 9
- Tamil Nadu: 4
- Karnataka: 2
- Northern and central states continue to record high CBRs :
Global Comparison
- Countries like Japan, South Korea, and many European nations are already dealing with ultra-low fertility rates (as low as 0.8–1.3) and population decline. But there's a major difference:
- These countries became rich before ageing.
- Indian states, especially in the South, are ageing before becoming rich — a challenge called "ageing before affluence".
What is Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?
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