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There will be no independent, sovereign Palestine
Context:
The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict has drawn international attention due to escalating tensions and the potential for wider regional conflict.
Certainty of No Palestinian State:
- Diminished Prospects: Despite past negotiations and attempts to establish a two-state solution, the likelihood of an independent Palestinian state remains bleak.
- Erosion of Support: Support for a Palestinian state among Israelis has waned, exacerbated by the rising popularity of Hamas, a militant group opposed to Israel's existence.
- Credibility Crisis: The Palestinian Authority's perceived corruption and inefficacy have undermined its legitimacy, making the emergence of a moderate Palestinian government improbable.
Probability of Wider Conflict:
- Involvement of Regional Actors: The conflict's complexity is compounded by the involvement of regional actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon, which poses a significant threat to Israel.
- Escalation Risk: The conflict's potential to escalate into a broader regional conflict involving Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and possibly Egypt heightens the risk of instability.
- Continued Hostilities: Despite international efforts to secure a ceasefire, ongoing hostilities persist, driven by geopolitical dynamics and entrenched grievances.
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