Census 2027 and the Political Reconfiguration

The 2027 Census, delayed from 2021, will be India’s first fully digital census and a crucial basis for parliamentary delimitation, caste enumeration, and resource allocation. It coincides with the Sixteenth Finance Commission's review, potentially reshaping India’s political and fiscal landscape.

Census 2027 and the Political Reconfiguration of India: Demography, Representation, and Federal Dynamics

• Demographic Counting as Political Instrument
  • Constitutional Mandate for Redistribution: The next inter-State parliamentary representation will be based on the population figures of the first census after 2026, as mandated by Article 81 of the Constitution.
  • Digitization and Acceleration of Census Processes: For the first time, all Census data will be digitally collected, enabling faster tabulation and possibly advancing the 2029 general elections under a newly delimited parliamentary map.
  • Impact on Political Power Balance: If population becomes the sole criterion for seat reallocation, states with higher birth rates but lower economic growth (e.g., BIMARU states) will gain power at the cost of economically advanced states with declining populations.
• Socio-Political Consequences of the Caste Census
  • Full-scale Caste Enumeration After 1931: For the first time post-Independence, all castes will be counted, unlike the existing practice of only enumerating SCs and STs, potentially intensifying claims for quota revisions.
  • Implications on Reservation Cap: The caste census is expected to trigger demand for revisiting the 50% ceiling on reservations, especially amid rising political mobilization on caste lines.
  • Women’s Reservation and Simultaneous Elections: The upcoming delimitation will incorporate the 33% reservation for women in Lok Sabha and State Assemblies and may also facilitate simultaneous elections, as envisioned by the Centre.
• From Population to People — Political Identity and Governance
  • Demography as Political Identity: The census plays a pivotal role in transforming a population into a political community ("the People") — impacting governance, identity formation, and resource allocation.
  • Revenue Sharing and Federal Tensions: The Sixteenth Finance Commission, reporting in 2025, will determine revenue sharing, and its timing alongside Census 2027 may reignite inter-State fiscal tensions (especially South vs. North).
  • Strategic Political Use by Stakeholders: Population-based delimitation and caste census are being strategically employed to consolidate demographic advantages and mobilize regional and backward-class support, reflecting a broader trend of aligning electoral strategies with evolving socio-political demographics

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