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India’s growth prospects are on the up. What changed?

  • Published
    19th Dec, 2023

Context:

A small but fast-growing part of the economy which we call ‘New India’, is central to speeding up growth. One is the exports of high-tech goods, the other is India’s digital public infrastructure.

Current Drivers of India's Economic Growth

  • Rural Resilience Amidst El Nino: Despite El Nino's threat, construction jobs surged, bolstering rural employment and stabilizing wages.
  • Emergence of "New India": "New India" in high-tech sectors and digital infrastructure supports rapid growth and fosters entrepreneurship.
  • Long-Term Growth Prospects: High-tech sectors may propel GDP growth to 6.5%, elevating India's global economic ranking.

Challenges in "Old India" - Manufacturing and Agriculture

  • Stagnation in Low-Tech Manufacturing: Small firms struggle; digitalization and reforms are vital for economies of scale and job creation.
  • Agriculture's Lagging Contribution: Digital agri-tech solutions and market-friendly legal frameworks are essential for sector growth.
  • The Need for Comprehensive Reforms: Digitalization complements reforms; focus on multi-sector reforms, business-friendly frameworks, and capital expenditure.

Envisioning Future Growth and Global Positioning

  • Reforms as Catalysts for Growth: Continued reforms can propel growth to 7.5%, addressing jobs and focusing on education.
  • Global Factors Favoring India: India benefits from a still-globalizing services trade and potential leapfrogging into green technology.
  • Seizing the Opportunity: With 60% of capital stock yet to be built, India must address obstacles for sustainable growth.
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