Maldives Model in Lanka

In 2024, India’s Neighbourhood First Policy faces significant challenges, notably from recent political developments in Sri Lanka, rising cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, and political instability in Bangladesh and Nepal. The situation highlights growing instability in India's neighboring regions, raising concerns for India’s security and diplomatic strategy.

Setbacks in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh

• Election Outcomes in Sri Lanka: The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake represents a shift from mainstream politics, potentially destabilizing India-Sri Lanka relations. His government may pursue radical economic policies, affecting Indian investments and projects in Sri Lanka.
• Political Unrest in Bangladesh: The anti-government student movement in Bangladesh has escalated into broader unrest against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Accusations of corruption have fueled resentment toward India, complicating India’s diplomatic standing in the region and potentially reviving radical elements.
• Security Concerns in Northeast India: The combination of ethnic conflict in Manipur and instability in neighboring Myanmar and Bangladesh poses a serious security threat to India’s Northeast. The interlinked crises could create a volatile situation, affecting India's eastern border.

Economic Interdependence and Diplomatic Strategies

• India's Economic Ties with Sri Lanka: Despite political turmoil, strong economic interdependence exists between India and Sri Lanka, evidenced by significant Indian aid during Sri Lanka's economic crisis.
• Maldives as a Diplomatic Template: India’s experience in managing relations with a hostile regime in the Maldives suggests a potential approach for dealing with Sri Lanka.
• Need for Comprehensive Neighbourhood Strategy: India must avoid viewing relations with neighbors as isolated events. A comprehensive strategy should be developed that addresses each country's unique circumstances while promoting regional economic integration and collaborative efforts on challenges like climate change.

Recommendations for Future Engagement

• Engagement Beyond Ruling Parties: India's past focus in Bangladesh has limited its influence. A broader engagement strategy should include all political factions, particularly given the growing anti-Indian sentiment.
• Monitoring Emerging Political Trends: The unexpected rise of the NPP in Sri Lanka underscores the importance of anticipating political shifts. India must enhance its diplomatic outreach to emerging leaders and parties to maintain influence in the region.
• Leveraging India’s Role as Regional Leader: India should position itself as a growth engine for its neighbors, facilitating regional transport and communication networks. This leadership role can enhance its standing and effectiveness in addressing regional issues collectively.

Practice Question

Q. Analyze the implications of recent political developments in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh on India’s Neighbourhood First Policy. What strategies should India adopt to enhance its diplomatic relations and ensure regional stability?