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Nepal Floods
Context
Recent torrential monsoon rains in Nepal have resulted in devastating floods, claiming the lives of over 200 people. This alarming situation highlights the dual nature of the South Asian monsoon—vital for agriculture and livelihoods but also a catalyst for destruction through floods and landslides.
What is the South Asian Monsoon?
- The Southwest or Asian Summer Monsoon is a significant meteorological phenomenon that delivers 70-80% of South Asia's annual rainfall from June to September.
- This system occurs when the intense summer heat warms the landmass of the Indian subcontinent, causing the air to rise and draw in cooler winds from the Indian Ocean.
- The result is substantial rainfall that is essential for millions of farmers and food security in a region home to approximately two billion people.
- However, the monsoon's unpredictable nature often leads to catastrophic events.
- Challenges in Forecasting the Monsoon: Despite extensive research, predicting the monsoon remains a complex challenge. The variability in rainfall timing and distribution complicates forecasting efforts.
- For instance, while Pakistan has experienced severe flooding this season, parts of eastern and northeastern India reported the lowest July rainfall in 122 years.
- Factors responsible for altering rainfall pattern:
- Factors influencing monsoon behavior include global atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as the El Niño effect and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO).
- Local influences, like aerosol pollution and dust clouds from the Sahara, also play a role in altering rainfall patterns.
- Climate change is increasingly affecting the South Asian monsoon. The region has experienced rising temperatures and more frequent cyclones, yet the precise impact of climate change on the monsoon is still unclear.
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