Recalibrating India’s Foreign Policy Towards Myanmar

In June 2024, the Myanmar military junta ended the state of emergency and announced general elections by December, even as a civil war continues to escalate.

Assessing India's Strategic and Ethical Imperatives in Myanmar's Political Crisis

Background and Present Status of Myanmar Crisis

• 2021 Coup and its Aftermath: The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) overthrew the civilian government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) in February 2021. Since then, the country has experienced a sharp escalation in violence, with over 5,000 civilians reportedly killed and around 2.5 million displaced.
• Current Developments: In June 2024, the junta ended the emergency and called for elections despite the ongoing multi-faction civil war involving the junta, ethnic militias, and the pro-democracy resistance, including the National Unity Government (NUG).

India’s Existing Policy Approach Towards Myanmar

• India has continued formal relations with the military regime, primarily driven by strategic and security considerations, especially in the Northeast and Indo-Pacific.
• The Indian government prioritizes counterinsurgency cooperation, economic linkages (e.g., Kaladan Project), and checking Chinese influence over normative concerns like democracy or human rights.

Rethinking India's Myanmar Policy: The Need for Value-Based Realignment

• Promoting Democracy and Federalism
  • India as a Model of Federal Democracy: India’s democratic and federal credentials offer a soft power advantage. The NUG and ethnic groups seek a federal constitution to replace the military-drafted 2008 constitution.
  • Strategic Distinction from China: Unlike China, which maintains transactional ties with the junta, India can support institutional reforms, federalism, and democratic capacity-building.
• Halting Military and Strategic Supplies to the Junta
  • Recent Arms Transfers: Reports (e.g., by Justice for Myanmar) indicate India supplied military equipment and naval diesel post-2021, undermining its moral position.
  • Policy Shift Needed: India must immediately suspend any form of direct or indirect military support to the junta, as this contradicts humanitarian obligations.
• Humanitarian Corridors and Cross-Border Aid
  • Crisis Along the Indo-Myanmar Border: Sagaing, Chin, and Rakhine are severely impacted regions. Refugees have crossed into Mizoram and Manipur.
  • Revoking Border Fencing and FMR Suspension: The Free Movement Regime (FMR), suspended in February 2024, should be reinstated to allow tribal kin to cross borders freely for safety and humanitarian aid.
  • Leveraging Local Networks and NGOs: India must partner with NGOs and local actors for non-junta-distributed aid, similar to Thailand’s cross-border model.
• Protection of Asylum Seekers and Refugees
  • Non-Refoulement Principle: India must halt deportations of asylum seekers from Myanmar, especially in BJP-ruled states like Manipur and Assam.
  • Legal and Moral Obligation: Though not a party to the 1951 Refugee Convention, India is bound by the customary international law principle of non-refoulement and Article 21 of its Constitution ensuring the right to life.

Way Forward

• Strategic Realignment with Values: India should frame its Myanmar policy on a synergy of democratic values and long-term strategic interests.
• Soft Power Diplomacy: By engaging civil society, aiding institutional development, and promoting human security, India can enhance its regional stature and differentiate itself from China.
• Humanitarian Leadership: Opening aid corridors and protecting asylum seekers can project India as a responsible regional power.