China’s warning shots with minerals that run the world

China recently announced restrictions on the export of antimony, a critical mineral used in defense applications, citing national security concerns. This move is part of a broader strategy, highlighting China's dominance in the global critical minerals supply chain and its increasing willingness to leverage these resources for political and strategic ends.

Moves and Countermoves

• China's Dominance in Critical Minerals: China controls approximately 60% of global rare earth production and 80% of processing capabilities, giving it a significant influence over the supply chain. This monopoly status renders countries like the S., India, and Japan strategically vulnerable due to their dependence on these minerals for advanced technologies and defense systems.
• Historical Precedents: China's history of using export controls as a political tool became evident during the 2010 rare earth embargo against Japan, which raised global awareness of dependence on Chinese resources. The recent antimony restrictions echo this strategy, reinforcing the perception that China is willing to weaponize its mineral resources against Western nations in response to trade tensions.
• Reciprocal Actions Against the West: In 2023, China reciprocated U.S. export control measures by imposing restrictions on minerals critical for advanced technologies, such as gallium and germanium. This shift from intimidation to the weaponization of critical minerals reflects a more aggressive foreign policy posture, aimed at undermining Western efforts to establish alternative supply chains.

India’s Vulnerability

• Strategic Dependence on China: India is heavily reliant on imports of critical minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt, resulting in significant import costs. This dependence poses a substantial risk to India's technological and defense sectors, given the ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• Need for Alternative Supply Chains: India's escalating demand for minerals necessitates urgent measures to diversify supply sources and establish partnerships with like-minded countries.
• Call for Strategic Realignment: The recent developments in critical mineral exports from China serve as a wake-up call for Indian policymakers. Emphasizing collaboration with allies and investing in domestic mineral exploration will be critical for bolstering national security and economic resilience in the face of external pressures.

Practice Question

Q. “Over the last decade, China’s control over critical minerals has grown steadily. Any restrictions by China on critical mineral exports have direct impact for global supply chains.” Comment