26th September 2024 (11 Topics)

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Global Warming and Climate Forecasting

Context

The record warming of 2023-2024 has highlighted the profound effects of global warming, as extreme weather events such as heatwaves, cyclones, floods, droughts, and wildfires become more frequent and severe. Given these experiences, there is the urgent need to improve climate predictions and adapt to an increasingly volatile climate.

Current Climate Observations

Key observations and implications from this period include:

Crossing the 1.5º C Threshold: Some estimates suggest the world may have surpassed the critical 1.5º C warming threshold, although the exact duration of this warming's impact remains uncertain.
Unexpected Extremes: The warming has produced a mix of weather extremes that defy predictions. For instance, while a strong El Niño was anticipated, the actual warming was much greater, likely influenced by factors like volcanic activity and wildfires.
Erratic Monsoon Patterns: The 2023 monsoon was below normal but did not classify as an El Niño drought. Future predictions about monsoon patterns, including expectations for 2024, remain uncertain.
Cyclone Activity: The North Indian Ocean cyclone season has been weaker than expected for a La Niña year, indicating unpredictability in weather patterns.

Challenges in Prediction

Model Limitations: Existing climate models struggle to accurately reproduce monsoon trends over the past 50 years, leading to questions about their reliability for future forecasts.
Increasing Complexity: As the climate continues to warm, predictions may become even more challenging due to the complex interactions among various climate systems (e.g., hurricanes, El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole).
Natural Variability: There is still much to learn about how climate change affects natural variability and whether current observed patterns are short-term fluctuations or longer-term trends.

Fact Box: Prediction of weather in India

India Meteorological Department is solely responsible for issuing operational long range forecast for India.
The forecasts are prepared at the National Climate Center of IMD located at Pune.
At present, empirical (statistical) methods are used for the preparation of operational long range forecasts.
India, at present, depends on satellite data and computer models for weather prediction.
The IMD uses the INSAT series of satellites and supercomputers.
Forecasters use satellite data around cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapour content that help in rainfall estimation, weather forecasting, and tracking cyclones.
The weather agency is now using manned and automatic weather stations, aircraft, ships, weather balloons, ocean buoys and satellites to gather information on atmospheric temperature, pressure humidity, wind speed and direction and sea surface temperatures.
- The data is then fed into a supercomputer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune.

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GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

26th September 2024 (11 Topics)

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Global Warming and Climate Forecasting

Current Climate Observations

Challenges in Prediction

Fact Box: Prediction of weather in India

Still Have Questions?

GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

Global Warming and Climate Forecasting

Current Climate Observations

Challenges in Prediction

Fact Box: Prediction of weather in India

Still Have Questions?

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