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Threat of back-to-back cyclones in Bay of Bengal, with possibility of rapid intensification
Context
Low pressure area forming mid-November expected to intensify into a depression & undergo rapid intensification
About
Cyclones in Bay of Bengal
- Two back-to-back low-pressure areas may be forming in the Bay of Bengal, both of which could further intensify into cyclones. One of them could also become a severe cyclone.
- South Andaman Sea:The first low pressure area, induced by an upper air cyclonic circulation over the South Andaman Sea, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shared. This system may gain strength to become a depression by mid-November.
- Bay of Bengal:Another upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over the south-western parts of the Bay of Bengal. This may also induce a low-pressure area.
- Fujiwhara Effect:The simultaneous formation of the second low-pressure area could lead to its interaction with the earlier system. Such an interaction is known as the Fujiwhara effect.
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About Fujiwhara Effect
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The Storm situation in India:
- Unlikely of Fujiwhara Effect:The second low-pressure area will likely form after the dissipation of the first system so the possibility of them interacting under theFujiwhara effect is not much.
- According to Down to Earth, both the low pressure areas could intensify into cyclones with the earlier system also possibly intensifying into a severe cyclone.
- The low pressure area forming today earlier would intensify into a depression and undergo rapid intensification (RI).
- Rapid intensification: RI occurs when a tropical cyclone gains wind speeds of 56 kilometres per hour or more in a span of 24 hours. RI generally makes it difficult for weather agencies to predict the track and intensity of tropical cyclones.
- Recent cyclone studies:Many recent tropical cyclones have undergone RI, which is mainly due to warmer-than-usual sea surface and subsurface temperatures. For instance, cyclone Freddy in February-March 2023 became the first tropical cyclone ever to experience seven phases of rapid intensification over its lifetime.
- Cyclone Freddy: The cyclone had its genesis near Australia and moved all across the southern Indian Ocean to devastate Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique.
- Cyclone Biparjoy:Cyclone Biparjoy in the Arabian Sea in June 2023 also showed RI.
Threat of cyclones on Indian Coasts:
- While the threat of the Fujiwhara effect is far off, back-to-back cyclones with RI in tow could create considerable impacts along the Indian coasts.
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