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Growth dichotomy

  • Published
    15th Nov, 2023

Context

Slowdown in industrial output growth shows low consumer confidence.

Sluggish Industrial Growth

  • Sluggish Growth in Industrial Output: September's IIP growth at 5.8% marked a significant slowdown from the previous month's 10.3%, falling short of the anticipated 7% to 8%.
  • Economic Indicator: The IIP serves as a critical economic indicator, revealing a concerning trend of sluggish industrial output and reflecting challenges in the overall economic landscape.
  • Concerns and Expectations: The subdued IIP growth raises concerns about industrial momentum, falling below economists' expectations, prompting scrutiny of factors influencing the slowdown and broader economic implications.

Diverse Sectoral Challenges:

  • Sectoral Contractions and Inventory Concerns: September witnessed contractions in nine manufacturing sectors, including significant drops in furniture and apparel production. Hopes for pre-festive season inventory buildup were dispelled.
  • Low Consumer Confidence:Consumer confidence remains subdued, with minimal growth in consumer durables and non-durables. Fast-moving consumer goods experienced a 3.5% decline, indicating restrained spending habits.
  • Economic Asymmetry and Resilience:The IIP reflects an economic asymmetry, with investment-linked sectors showing resilience, contrasting the challenges faced by consumer-centric segments, emphasizing the need for balanced economic recovery strategies.

Economic Divergence and Future Challenges:

  • Economic Disparity and Q2 Performance:Q2 witnesses 7.4% average factory output growth, aligning with the central bank's Q2 GDP growth hopes, showcasing economic disparities.
  • Consumer vs. Investment Sectors:Consumer goods, especially durables, lag behind pre-COVID-19 levels, contrasting with resilient growth in investment-linked sectors like infrastructure and construction goods.
  • Challenges and Future Outlook:Challenges ahead include potential moderation in capex spends, uncertainties in sensitive commodity prices, and declining output in infrastructure and construction goods, emphasizing consumption's critical role.
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