India and the new world order

Eurasia is in turmoil. Three major conflicts- Russia-Ukraine, Israel’s Gaza operations and the Israel-Iran-US conflict are reshaping the geopolitics of the region. Wars don’t just cause physical destruction; they profoundly impact international relations. Given the present situation, it is time for India to reconfigure its global engagements, going beyond old-world romanticism and Cold War calculations.

India’s Geostrategic Challenges:

• Rise of China and BRI: The Belt and Road Initiative has become a cornerstone of its global strategy, fostering economic connectivity and influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe.
• Energy Security: Conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran-Israel tensions also create challenges for India’s energy security.
• The IMEC Initiative:
  • Launched in 2023 during the G20 summit in New Delhi, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) aims to connect South Asia, the GCC, and Europe through a network of sea and land routes.
  • However, IMEC faces significant challenges:
    • Geopolitical Instability in Eurasia: Particularly in the Middle East, threatens the viability of IMEC’s land routes through countries like Jordan and Israel.
    • Flawed Positioning: IMEC is often pitted against China’s BRI, conflating geo-economic goals with geopolitical rivalry. This framing ignores the reality that many IMEC partner countries, including GCC nations and EU states, are deeply integrated into the BRI.

Addressing IMEC’s Structural Challenges:

• Include countries like Jordan and Egypt in the corridor.
• Investing in rail and port infrastructure to handle the massive cargo volumes currently managed by the Suez Canal.
• Reframe IMEC as a complementary economic initiative rather than a rival to the BRI, fostering cooperation with BRI-partner countries.

Adopting a multidirectional approach:

• Moving beyond old-world romanticism: India’s foreign policy has often been shaped by historical narratives, such as the romanticised view of ancient trade routes with Europe through Gulf ports. While India historically exported spices and textiles in exchange for gold, modern realities differ.
• Strengthening ties with the middle east: India’s enhanced engagement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE has been a diplomatic success. These relationships should be deepened to ensure IMEC’s stability and to counterbalance China’s influence in the region.
• Reinvigorating ASEAN engagement: India must prioritise its Act East Policy by boosting trade and investment with ASEAN countries, leveraging the comprehensive strategic partnership established in 2022.
• Engaging Eastern and Central Europe: Beyond Western Europe, India should explore opportunities in Eastern and Central European markets, which are less saturated by Chinese influence.
• Reassessing relations with Russia: With Russia’s growing alignment with China, India must carefully calibrate its strategic partnership with Moscow to safeguard its interests in Central Asia and beyond.