Renewed Ceasefire in Manipur

The Union Home Ministry has renewed the tripartite Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with Kuki militant groups and allowed ‘free movement’ on National Highway-2, a critical route between Nagaland and Manipur.

Understanding the Implications of the Renewed Ceasefire Agreement

Background of the Conflict

• Manipur has been witnessing violent ethnic clashes since May 2023 between the Meitei and Kuki
• The crisis has led to deepening fault lines, displacement of people, and serious law-and-order challenges.
• National Highway-2 (NH-2), connecting Nagaland’s Dimapur to Manipur’s capital Imphal, has been a lifeline disrupted by the conflict.

Suspension of Operations (SoO) Agreement

• The SoO is a tripartite agreement involving the Union Government, State Government, and insurgent groups.
• In the latest renewal, the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and United People’s Front (UPF) remain under its framework.
• Key revised terms include:
  • Consolidation of camps and reduction in their number.
  • Deposition of weapons under CRPF oversight.
  • Biometric verification and stricter accounting of cadres.
  • Restrictions on movements of cadres outside camps without prior approval.

Free Movement on NH-2

• The Government permitted the Kuki-Zo Council (KZC) to lift blockades and resume unhindered travel on NH-2.
• The highway is critical for trade, transport, and supply chains between Nagaland and Manipur.
• Its reopening signals confidence-building between the Government and tribal representatives.

Implications for Security and Governance

• Positive Implications:
  • Can reduce hostilities between communities.
  • Enables humanitarian access to affected areas.
  • Strengthens Centre’s engagement with armed groups under democratic frameworks.
• Challenges:
  • Meitei civil society groups (like COCOMI) remain opposed, fearing legitimisation of armed Kuki outfits.
  • Ethnic polarisation continues, with trust deficits between groups.
  • Presence of non-SoO Kuki groups like United National Liberation Front (UNLF) complicates peace prospects.

Continuing Challenges

• Ethnic Polarisation: Deep divides between valley-based Meiteis and hill-based Kukis.
• Arms Control: Infiltration of weapons and cross-border dynamics.
• Civilian Pushback: Opposition from Meitei groups to any concessions to Kuki groups.
• Long-Term Political Settlement: Need for reconciliation measures beyond security arrangements.

Way Forward

• Inclusive Dialogue: Engage both Kuki and Meitei stakeholders under a neutral framework to build trust.
• Humanitarian Approach:Prioritise resettlement of displaced persons and restore essential services.
• Monitoring Mechanism: Independent oversight of SoO implementation to ensure accountability.
• Balanced Federal Response: Central Government must ensure that state and community concerns are equitably addressed.
• Long-Term Peace Process: Move from ceasefire management towards political reconciliation with constitutional safeguards.