GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

In a big step forward in India-China ties, the two countries have discussed resuming direct flights between the countries as well restarting the Kailash Mansarovaryatra. 

Key-highlights

• A high-level engagement between India and China has been held recently on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, between India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.
• The meeting was the first high-level engagement between the two countries since the completion of the disengagement process in the two contentious areas of Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh.
• The disengagement process has contributed to the maintenance of peace and tranquility.

What are the key-issues under discussion?

• Direct flights between India and China were suspended because of the Covid pandemic in 2020 and have not resumed since then despite the restrictions being lifted.
  • The stand-off in Ladakh began in May that year and a clash took place in Ladakh'sGalwan the next month in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed in action and the Chinese side also suffered losses, with the exact number remaining unconfirmed.
  • A troop buildup followed on both sides and military-level talks began taking place to resolve the stand-off.
• The Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage to Mount Kailash, believed to be the abode of Lord Shiva, in China was also suspended during the pandemic in 2020 and is yet to resume.

What would have prompted this closeness?

• For improved trade: In New Delhi’s case, the economy guided a political reset with Beijing. After the Galwan clash, India placed significant restrictions on Chinese investment and visas which had affected the Indian business community.
• To eradicate pressure: The West’s stance on the diplomatic trouble in India–Canada relations alongside the charges in the United States against an Indian spy over an alleged plot to kill American Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun may have given some impetus to New Delhi’s decision to improve ties with Beijing.
• China’s behaviour has shifted. As part of efforts to maintain its international ambitions, Beijing is seeking to present itself as a more responsible and cooperative international player with less emphasis on so-called “wolf warrior” diplomacy.

How does the possibility of closer India-China ties impact global power?

• India and China, the two most populous countries in the world, are experiencing a shift in their bilateral relations that could have far-reaching consequences for global geopolitics.
• This evolving partnership, driven by economic complementarities and strategic cooperation, has the potential to reshape the global order, moving away from the US-centric model that has prevailed since the end of the Cold War.
• Economic Complementarities:China, a global manufacturing hub, and India, with its strong services sector and growing digital economy, can benefit greatly from enhanced economic ties. The two nations can collaborate on various fronts such as:
  • Trade and Investment: With China as a major exporter and India as an emerging market, both countries can benefit from increased trade, investments, and technology exchange.
  • Infrastructure Development: India’s need for infrastructure development can align with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering opportunities for collaboration in sectors like energy, transport, and manufacturing.
• Asia’s Growing Influence: A closer relationship between India and China could mark a strategic shift in global geopolitics. For decades, the world has been dominated by a US-centric global order, with the United States playing the role of the primary power broker. However, as India and China find common ground, they could shift the focus to Asia as the new center of influence in world affairs.
• Regional Stability: A partnership between the two Asian giants could bring greater stability to the region, reducing tensions that have long existed over issues such as the border dispute.
• Balance of Power: A strong India-China relationship could challenge US dominance, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, and lead to a multipolar world order, where global decisions are driven by multiple powers, not just the US.
• Recalibration of Alliances: Traditional alliances, including those centeredaround the US, may be reevaluated as countries adjust their foreign policies based on shared interests with Asian powers.
• Strategic Pragmatism: Countries may prioritize strategic pragmatism over historical rivalries, opting for partnerships that offer economic benefits and regional stability.

The Role of the United States in Sino-Indian Relations

• The United States’ actions toward India in recent years have contributed to the Sino-Indian rapprochement. Despite historically being a close ally to the US, India has faced increasing pressure on various fronts, including its defense ties with Russia, trade relations, and stance on global security issues.
• This pressure has, ironically, pushed India and China closer, as both countries see shared interests in resisting Western pressure.

The Roadmap for India’s City Systems Reformsreleased recently discusses the current state of urban governance and provides recommendations for urban transformation in India. Here's what it covers:

Current state of urban governance (Key-findings)

• India’s rapid economic growth has accelerated urbanisation with nearly half the population expected to reside in urban areas by 2035. 
• Women Councillors in Urban Local Bodies
  • Around 46% of the councillors in India are women.
  • In 19 out of 21 capital cities (like Patna, Shimla, Ranchi, and Bhubaneswar), the number of women councillors is more than 60%.
  • Tamil Nadu has the highest number of women councillors, followed by Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh.
  • 17 States have passed laws reserving 50% of local council seats for women, which is higher than the constitutional requirement of 33%.
• Urban Transformation Pathways: The report presents three pathways for improving urban governance in India:
  • Place-Based Governance: Focusing on governance that is centeredaround specific regions or cities, rather than just national schemes and funding.
  • Decentralised Participatory Governance: Encouraging more involvement of local people in governance decisions by strengthening local governments and ensuring they are more responsive to citizens.
  • Building State Capacities: Strengthening the capabilities of State governments to manage urbanization effectively.
• Rural-Urban Transition: The report emphasizes the need for a Rural-Urban Transition Policy to manage the growing number of villages turning into towns and cities. Since 2011, around 1,000 villages have already transitioned into urban areas. The policy would help plan this transition properly.
• Reimagining Urban Governance: The report recommends rethinking the role of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs and State urban departments. These should be seen as regional economic and local government bodies rather than just focusing on sectors, schemes, and funding.
  • The goal is to focus on strengthening local self-government rather than just implementing national schemes in cities.

Challenges

• Delayed Elections: Many Urban Local Bodies (ULGs) have delayed elections, with 61% of ULGs in 15 States having issues with timely elections.
• Disempowered Mayors: Mayors in many cities have limited powers. They only have control over 4 out of 18 functions they are supposed to manage.
• Citizen Participation: There is a lack of formal platforms for citizens to engage with local governments. The 74th Constitutional Amendment (which aimed to empower urban local bodies) needs better implementation.

Suggestions

The roadmap makes suggestions to improve the skills of urban local body (ULB) staff:

• Certification-Based Skilling Programs: These programs would help local government staff acquire skills and knowledge to manage urban issues effectively.
• Municipal Shared Service Centres: These centres would help smaller cities by sharing resources and services, ensuring that even smaller cities benefit from economies of scale.
• Digital Public Finance Management System: This system would track how funds are spent and whether physical progress of projects matches the financial outlay.
• Shelf of Projects: Every city should have a ready list of development projects to facilitate municipal borrowings and make sure cities are prepared for future growth.

Donald Trump, the President-elect of the U.S., has proposed imposing tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports. This decision is aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China, which means the U.S. imports more from China than it exports to China. The goal is also to punish China for its subsidies to domestic producers, which make Chinese goods cheaper in the U.S. compared to locally produced goods. In addition to China, Trump has also threatened to impose 10% tariffs on imports from the European Union.

Immediate Impact of the Tariffs:

• Higher Prices for Consumers: Tariffs are taxes on imports, and when the U.S. imposes these, the prices of affected goods (like clothes, electronics, etc.) will rise in the U.S. market.
  • For example, if the U.S. places a tariff on Chinese-made goods, those goods will become more expensive in the U.S. because importers will have to pay the tariff, which they will likely pass on to consumers.
• Domestic Inflation: If many products are taxed through tariffs, the overall price level in the U.S. will increase, leading to inflation (a general rise in prices).
  • However, if tariffs help reduce the trade deficit (U.S. imports less and exports more), it might improve the S. dollar’s value and reduce inflation to some extent. It could also boost domestic production if U.S. manufacturers take over from Chinese suppliers.
• Global Impact: Other countries (like China and the EU) might respond with their own tariffs on U.S. goods. This could lead to a trade war, where tariffs escalate, harming both sides.
  • A trade war could lead to higher global commodity prices and worsened inflation worldwide.

What Happens if the U.S. Imposes a Tariff?

If the U.S. imposes a 10% tariff on Chinese shirts:

• The price of a Chinese shirt in the U.S. market would go up by 10%.
• New price of the Chinese shirt in the U.S. = $110 (or 796.4 yuan).
• Why? The tariff adds $10 to the cost of the Chinese shirt, making it less attractive to American consumers.

Now, the U.S. manufacturers can sell their shirts at $105 (still cheaper than the new price of Chinese shirts), which could make U.S. manufacturers more competitive, since the domestic price is only $105.

Impact on China:

• The Chinese producers now face a 10% tariff, which translates to an extra 4 yuan per shirt.
• To counter this, China’s government might intervene by:
  • Subsidizing its textile producers (give them 72.4 yuan per shirt).
  • Devaluing the yuan (making it weaker against the dollar) by 10%.
  • Stimulating the economy by lowering interest rates, leading to a weaker yuan.

If the yuan is devalued by 10% to $1 = 7.96 yuan, Chinese exporters will still get 796.4 yuan for the shirt (same as before the tariff), but they will pay the tariff in yuan (72.4 yuan), effectively making the impact of the tariff neutral for them.

However, devaluing the yuan might lead to higher inflation in China because the value of the currency drops, making imports more expensive. But if it helps boost Chinese exports and economic growth, the inflation risk could be managed.

Two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea have been suddenly disrupted, according to local telecommunications companies. This could be part of a larger campaign of hybrid warfare or espionage, particularly attributed to Russia.

What Happened?

• Two critical undersea telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea were damaged, cutting off vital connections between several European countries.
  • Lithuania-Sweden cable:The first cable connected Lithuania to the Swedish island of It was important for the Baltic States, which rely on strong connections for trade, diplomacy, and security communications within the European Union and NATO.
  • Finland-Germany cable:The second cable linked Finland and Germany.It was the only direct link between Finland and Central Europe. It spanned nearly 1,200 kilometers (730 miles) and was a key part of European communication infrastructure.This cable facilitated data flow for businesses, governments, and military communications.
• These cables were significant for international communications, with the Finland-Germany cable being the only direct link between Finland and Central Europe.
• These telecommunication cables are not only crucial for internet connectivity but also for broader economic and security communications between European nations.

Free trade talks between India and the UK will be relaunched in the new year.

What is Free Trade Agreement?

• It is a pact between two or more nations to reduce barriersto imports and exports among them.
• Under a free trade policy, goods and services can be bought and sold across international borders with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitionsto inhibit their exchange.
• The concept of free trade is the opposite of trade protectionism or economic isolationism.          

India-UK Trade Relations

• India’s trade relationship with the United Kingdom continues to grow steadily, showcasing immense potential for deeper collaboration and strategic engagement.
• As per the latest data from April to September 2024, India’s exports to the UK witnessed a robust growth of 12.38%, reaching USD 7.32 billion, compared to USD 6.51 billion during the same period in 2023.
• Mineral fuels, machinery, and precious stones, pharmaceuticals, apparels, iron and steel and chemicals lead India’s export basket to the UK, contributing a 68.72% share of total exports.
• The United Kingdom is a priority country for the achievement of India’s ambitious USD 1 trillion export target by FY30, with exports to the UK expected to reach USD 30 billion by 2029-30.
• The UK remained the sixth largest investor in India, with a cumulative investment of approximately USD 31.92 billion during FY 2000-22.This constituted around 4% of the total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)into India.

In October 2023, a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) occurred in the Teesta Valley, affecting parts of Sikkim and West Bengal. This was triggered by the bursting of South Lhonak Lake in Sikkim, which had expanded significantly over the years. This flood not only caused immediate damage but also left long-term risks, as the valley remains vulnerable to future floods.

About the disaster

• The disaster was occurred due to a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF), from South Lhonak glacial lake that inundated the Teesta River.
  • The South Lhonaklake is among the largest high-altitude glacier lakes in Sikkim and has been the poster child of potential GLOF disasters in the Himalayas. 
• It resulted in widespread devastation across Sikkim, West Bengal, and Bangladesh. 
• Location:
  • Located approximately 60 kilometres downstream of the lake, in Chungthang town of Mangan district, was the 1,200 MW Teesta III dam, the biggest hydropower project in Sikkim.
  • Chungthang is a small town on the confluence of the Lachen chu (river) and Lachung chu, which form the Teesta.
  • It is a gateway to tourist destinations further north, and an important forward base of the Indian Army.
  • The Teesta III dam, which started functioning in 2017, was developed by Teesta Urja Limited; the majority share is now owned by the Government of Sikkim.
• The Need for Urgent Action:There are only six months left before the 2025 monsoon, and the authorities must act now to prevent further damage.
• Joint Approach: The two states, Sikkim and West Bengal, need to work together on disaster management, treating the Teesta Valley as a shared problem. A joint committee could help coordinate efforts between the states, instead of working in isolation.
• Task Force for Action Plan: A task force, including experts in geo-hydrology, environmental science, engineering, and sociology, should be formed to develop a comprehensive plan to restore and fortify the region. This plan should address the ecological, infrastructure, and community welfare
• Restoring Infrastructure:
  • Repairing Roads and Bridges: Many roads and bridges have been damaged or destroyed. These must be repaired to restore connectivity and enable disaster relief efforts.
  • Strengthening Evacuation Centres: Existing evacuation centres should be reinforced and equipped with solar backup power to remain functional during future emergencies.
• Protection from Floods:Re-channeling the Teesta River; Protecting Low-lying Areas
• Non-Structural Measures:Early Warning Systems; Backup Communication Systems; Risk Management and Awareness Campaigns; Afforestation and Ecosystem Restoration

The Supreme Court of India’s Centre for Research and Planning has proposed the introduction of electronic tracking for prisoners granted parole or furlough as a potential solution to decongest overcrowded prisons. The idea has been discussed in the Model Prisons and Correctional Services Act, 2023, which allows for the use of electronic tracking devices for prisoners who are granted leave. The growing prison congestion and the rising number of undertrials have prompted this suggestion, but concerns regarding privacy and human rights remain.

Concerns Over Implementation

• Lack of Guidelines for Deployment: The proposal to use electronic trackers on undertrials facing non-heinous charges faces criticism for the absence of clear guidelines on when and how this technology should be used. The lack of standards raises concerns about the potential violation of prisoners' rights.
• Privacy and Rights Concerns: Earlier this year, the Supreme Court disapproved of bail conditions that infringed upon an accused’s right to privacy, specifically regarding the sharing of location data on Google Maps. This suggests the need for caution while using electronic tracking to ensure that it doesn’t violate privacy rights.
• Balancing Surveillance and Civil Liberties: Despite the concerns, there is support for using cost-effective devices with consent to reduce administrative costs and address prison overcrowding. Bail conditions could be adjusted to allow electronic tracking without violating basic rights if done with proper consent and legal safeguards.

Potential Benefits and Global Practices

• Addressing Prison Overcrowding: India’s prisons are operating at 4% capacity, with over 573,220 prisoners as of December 31, 2022. Implementing electronic tracking can help decongest prisons by offering an alternative to traditional detention, particularly for low-risk offenders and undertrials.
• Use of Tracking Technology Globally: Several jurisdictions worldwide have adopted electronic tracking to monitor certain categories of offenders. These devices not only help in reducing prison occupancy but can also ensure that released prisoners do not engage in criminal activities or approach victims, ensuring public safety.
• Reducing Stigma through Compact Devices: To reduce potential stigma associated with wearing tracking devices, the compact size and low visibility of the trackers can be emphasized. This approach can encourage more prisoners to accept the technology as a condition for parole or furlough, improving compliance.

Practice Question:

In light of the Supreme Court’s research report on electronic tracking of prisoners, evaluate the pros and cons of using such technology in decongesting prisons while balancing the right to privacy and public safety. Suggest measures to ensure its effective and ethical implementation.

Manipur is experiencing escalating ethnic violence between the Meitei and Kuki communities, leading to over 250 deaths and widespread displacement. The situation has worsened with the reimposition of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) and the resignation of a key ally from the ruling coalition, highlighting governance and political failures. Despite measures like curfews and internet shutdowns, violence continues, revealing the government's inability to address the core issues.

Political and Governance Challenges

• Governance Failure:The Biren Singh government faces severe criticism for its inability to restore order, leading to the exit of the National People’s Party (NPP) from the coalition and a weakened political position.
• Human Cost of Ethnic Violence:The Meitei-Kuki ethnic conflict has resulted in over 250 deaths and displacement, with both communities feeling marginalized due to historical and geographical divides.
• Ineffective Measures:Curfews and internet shutdowns have failed to curb the unrest, exposing the government’s inefficiency in addressing the root causes of violence while stifling legitimate dissent.

Military Presence and the Need for Central Intervention

• AFSPA and Military Mistrust:The reimposition of AFSPA has reignited mistrust between civilians and the military, with human rights violations complicating the peace process despite insurgent group involvement.
• Ethnic Divides and Grievances:Long-standing ethnic divides and regional grievances between the Meitei and Kuki communities require a coherent strategy for reconciliation, which the current government has failed to implement.
• Central Government’s Role:The central government must urgently step in to mediate between the communities, address the root causes of violence, and work towards long-term peace and stability in Manipur.

Practice Question:

Discuss the political, ethnic, and governance challenges contributing to the ongoing violence in Manipur. How can the central government play a role in resolving the crisis?

The air quality in northern India, particularly New Delhi, has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks, with pollution levels reaching record-breaking "severe-plus" readings. This comes despite a relatively mild start to the season. The sudden spike in particulate matter (PM2.5) levels and the resulting air stagnation have sparked renewed discussions about air pollution and the need for long-term, scientifically based solutions. The issue has garnered attention amid the ongoing COP29 summit in Baku, where experts emphasize moving away from fossil fuels to curb pollution and its impact on public health.

Contributing Factors and Scientific Insights

• Weather Conditions and External Pollution Sources: The increase in pollution levels can be attributed to a combination of unfavorable weather conditions, such as low wind speeds and atmospheric stagnation, and an intrusion of pollutants from regions like Punjab and Haryana. Despite a significant reduction in stubble-burning incidents, the intrusion of toxic air from higher altitudes exacerbates the pollution situation in Delhi.
• Role of Vertical Pollution Layers: Models suggest that a thick pollution layer at around 500m altitude, coupled with lower temperatures at night, has contributed to worsening air quality. This vertical air mass descends during the night, leading to a buildup of particulate matter. As the boundary layer rises during the day, pollution levels decrease, but local emissions and external sources continue to affect air quality.
• Unpredictable Weather Patterns and La Niña: The unusual climate events, including a record-warm October and delayed onset of La Niña, have affected wind patterns and air circulation, making it difficult to predict and mitigate air pollution. La Niña, which typically helps with better winter circulation, has not yet fully set in, contributing to the air stagnation that worsens winter pollution.

Data, Challenges, and Policy Implications

• Discrepancy in AQI Readings: A significant issue highlighted is the discrepancy in air quality readings between private agencies and official sources. While some private agencies report AQI values exceeding 1,000-1,500, the official readings are capped at 500, raising doubts about the accuracy of the AQI system. This discrepancy arises due to India's own AQI breakpoint system, which uses different thresholds compared to the WHO guidelines, leading to confusion about the actual severity of pollution.
• Satellite Data Limitations and Stubble Burning: The shift in the timing of stubble burning in north-west India, allegedly to evade detection by satellite-based monitoring systems, has raised concerns about data accuracy. NASA satellites are currently used to track these activities, but they only pass over the region twice daily. There is a need to enhance the capacity to use Indian geostationary satellites (INSAT-3D/3DR) for more frequent and accurate monitoring, ensuring independence from foreign data sources.
• Need for Integrated Air Quality and Climate Strategy: Addressing the air pollution crisis requires an integrated strategy that combines air quality management and climate action. A scientific resource framework is necessary to address the problem comprehensively, as discussed in recent stakeholder meetings. The focus must be on health-centric measures, leveraging technological advances and fostering inter-sectoral cooperation to combat pollution effectively.

Practice Question:

Critically analyze the challenges in managing air pollution in India, with a focus on the discrepancies in air quality monitoring, the role of satellite data, and the need for integrated climate strategies. Suggest ways to address these issues for better air quality management.