Russia's Nuclear Posture Amidst Global Tensions

In 2023, President Vladimir Putin has intensified his rhetoric surrounding Russia's nuclear capabilities as a strategic counter to Western support for Ukraine. This year alone, he has ordered military drills involving battlefield nuclear weapons with Belarus, announced plans to produce ground-based intermediate-range missiles, and revised Russia's nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear engagement.

Overview of Russia's Nuclear Arsenal

• Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Russia possesses approximately 5,580 nuclear warheads, both deployed and non-deployed. This figure positions Russia as the owner of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, followed closely by the United States with 5,044 warheads. Together, these two countries control around 88% of global nuclear weapons.
• Nuclear Triad: Russia's nuclear capabilities include a triad of delivery systems:
  • Ground-Based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs): Russia has enhanced its land-based missile capabilities with new systems, including the mobile Yars ICBMs and the heavy, silo-based Sarmat ICBMs, nicknamed "Satan II" in the West. The Sarmat is set to replace older Soviet-built R-36M missiles, though it has faced operational challenges, including a failed test last month.
  • Long-Range Bombers: The Soviet-era Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers remain operational, carrying nuclear-armed cruise missiles. Production of upgraded Tu-160s has resumed, aiming for several dozen units equipped with modern engines and avionics.
  • Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs): Russia has added seven Borei-class submarines to its fleet, each capable of carrying 16 Bulava nuclear missiles, thus strengthening its naval nuclear deterrent. Plans are in place to build five additional Borei-class submarines.
• Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Russia is estimated to have between 1,000 and 2,000 non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use. These weapons are typically less powerful than strategic warheads but are capable of causing significant destruction in localized scenarios.
• Key Tactical Systems
  • Iskander Missiles: These high-precision ground-launched missiles have a range of up to 310 miles and can be fitted with either conventional or nuclear warheads.
  • Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile: Carried by MiG-31 fighter jets, this missile can also carry nuclear or conventional warheads, enhancing Russia's tactical capabilities.
• Nuclear Doctrine and Deterrence Strategy
  • Moscow has historically relied on the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which posits that a nuclear attack would result in overwhelming retaliation, deterring initial strikes.
  • The revised nuclear doctrine, adopted in 2020, stipulates conditions under which Russia might use nuclear weapons, including in response to conventional attacks that threaten the existence of the Russian state.
• Future of Arms Control: The last remaining arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, the New START treaty, limits each country to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers. However, Putin suspended Russia's participation in this treaty in February 2023 while asserting that Russia would still adhere to its limits. Moreover, the announcement of plans to produce ground-based intermediate-range missiles signals a shift away from previous arms control commitments.