Emerging Trilateral Dynamics in South Asia

A first-of-its-kind trilateral meeting was held in Kunming, China involving Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan. Though informal, it signals an emerging alignment in South Asia that may impact India’s strategic space. Just a few days later, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced that it is open to discussing all bilateral issues with Bangladesh in a “conducive environment”.

Historical Context and Strategic Importance

• India and Bangladesh share a 4,096-km border, making their relationship critical for regional stability and security.
• The 1971 Liberation War, where India played a pivotal role in Bangladesh’s independence, laid the foundation for strong ties.
• Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade reaching USD 12.9 billion in 2022-23.
• Initiatives like the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline and the Akhaura-Agartala rail link highlight the deepening economic integration.

What’s changing in Bangladesh's Foreign Policy?

Since the interim regime replaced Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League in August 2024, Bangladesh’s foreign policy has taken a new direction:

• Earlier, Bangladesh maintained a pro-India tilt, ensured that India’s security concerns (e.g., border, insurgency) were addressed, and prioritized India for infrastructure and connectivity projects.
• Now, the interim government is:
  • Deepening military and trade ties with Pakistan, despite the legacy of the 1971 Liberation War.
  • Actively welcoming Chinese investments and military cooperation, including in strategic areas near India’s Siliguri Corridor.
  • Trying to reduce reliance on India and look for new partners in the region, particularly China.

This shift away from India is not just symbolic; it’s institutional and strategic.

What actually happened?

• The meeting was at the official (bureaucratic) level, not at a political or head-of-state level.
• Bangladesh clarified that:
  • There was no political agenda or alliance-building.
  • It was not intended to target India or any other third country.

Significance of Kunming Trilateral for India

Even if the meeting was informal, there are strategic signals that India must carefully observe:

• China’s Increasing Role in South Asia: China has been using platforms like the China-South Asia Cooperation Forum to engage South Asian countries beyond India (e.g., Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives).
  • This is seen as part of Beijing’s strategy to reduce India’s traditional influence in its neighbourhood.
• Pakistan-China Axis with a Third Player: Pakistan is already a close strategic and economically of China (especially under the CPEC – China-Pakistan Economic Corridor). Inclusion of Bangladesh, even informally, adds to China-Pakistan’s regional diplomacy efforts, and may shift balance in regional cooperation formats.
• Bangladesh’s Strategic Autonomy: Bangladesh is trying to balance ties between India (its largest neighbour) and China (its biggest trading partner).
  • While it has close civilizational and economic ties with India, it also receives major infrastructure investments from China.
  • It’s being careful not to appear aligned too closely with either.

Implications for Regional Groupings

• India is part of SAARC (which is largely dysfunctional due to India-Pak tensions) and BIMSTEC (which excludes Pakistan).
• China is now attempting to shape its own South Asia platform, which could evolve into an alternate cooperation mechanism to India-led regional formats.