The Israel-Iran Ceasefire: Managing The Blowback

The cessation of Israel-Iran hostilities, announced by United States President Donald Trump, sets the stage for the denouement of the horror drama that began on October 7, 2023, with Hamas launching its Operation Toofan al-Aqsa.

Military Outcomes and Regional Shifts:

• Israel's military victories: Over the past 21 months, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), backed by the U.S., has scored a set of spectacular though pyrrhic military victories. In Gaza, the IDF has decimated Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, considered the world’s most formidable non-state actor, has been neutered with its leadership in disarray and its arsenal gone.
• Collapse of the regional adversaries: Syria’s al-Assad regime has been replaced by a weak Islamist government that poses no threat to Israel. Yemen’s al-Houthis did manage to disrupt maritime traffic and lob missiles at Israel, but have been cowed down by the disproportionate IDF and U.S. military responses.
• Iran’s strategic setback: After 12 days of high-intensity aerial exchanges, Israel and the US claimed to have “obliterated” the nuclear option that Iran pursued for over two decades. Tehran has also suffered strategic losses due to targeted assassinations of its top military personnel and nuclear scientists.

Iran's Political and Strategic Future:

• Challenges for Iran’s future: The future course of Iran would be the biggest challenge for two reasons: First, as the most populous country in the region, it is intrinsically important. Second, as Israel’s most implacable foe, it has been the region’s biggest disruptor and political determinant.
• Challenge of regime stability: While the victors may have publicly avowed their disinterest in regime change in Tehran, an unrepentant Mullah regime would signify their “unfinished agenda”.
• Prospects for a pro-West regime: The necessity of keeping Tehran in check on its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) ambitions by continued sanctions and strict and intrusive supervision would preoccupy the U.S., Israel and the pro-West regimes in this region. However, this could create an unsteady political dynamic similar to Iraq during 1991-2003.

The Israel-Palestine Conundrum:

• Gaza's humanitarian crisis: The just-concluded war with Iran would allow the IDF to refocus on the Gaza situation, where mass starvation competes with the high death toll of civilians every day due to Israeli fire.
• Israel’s post-war challenges: The end of the war would finally allow Israeli society greater normalcy; however, the economic and social costs of the war may haunt Israel for a long time. Israel’s post-war recovery and political reset towards moderation would be pivotal for the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
• Pathways to regional peace: After this apocalyptic conflict, the West Asian region yearns for peace and stability. If the three main actors, viz., Iran, Israel and the U.S., avoid triumphalism and transit instead to moderation and nation-building, this aspiration can be realised.

Practice Question:

Q. Analyse the geopolitical shifts in West Asia following Israel’s military victories over Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. How do these developments impact India’s strategic interests in West Asia?