International Relations (India and its neighbourhood relations) by Rajnish Jindal

Model Answer

Question #1. Discuss the political and economic crisis in Pakistan in present times. Should they be of any cause of concern to India?

Answer 1: Pakistan which has been in a marred financial crisis and arrest of former Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan's has triggered protests across Pakistan, triggered a wave of protests across Pakistan, culminating in the Supreme Court ordering his release. At present Pakistan is witnessing failing economy, political instability, social conflicts like caste and religion and external pressure to bring domestic changes. 

There are multiple reasons behind all this viz., sponsoring cross border terrorism to bring instability to Kashmir and turn Afghanistan into a protectorate; no focus to bring economic modernization to bring reforms to its economy; failed foreign policy which is mainly concerned with Middle East and more broadly the Muslim world and no respect in West; backfire of wrong policies adopted in the past like Pakistan’s support for militant groups which has now turned against the state only and troubled relations with USA.

Concerns of Pakistan's Crisis and challenges for India: Experts believe that this crisis could be a turning point in the country's politics. The situation in Pakistan is a dangerous situation not just for Pakistan, but also for neighbors, especially India. Pakistan may not have the fuel to fire its tanks, but the ongoing tumult could undermine the leftovers of rationality that hold a badly needed ceasefire at the Line of Control. For the foreseeable future, given the political uncertainty inside Pakistan, the prospect of any forward movement to normalize things between the two adversaries appears rather bleak.

Pakistan is India’s next-door neighbor thus not only stability in the region is essential but also paramount for the smooth sailing of each nation in the region that has its own impact on India. The economic crisis in the country will increase its dependency on other countries which means even India has to live with increased Chinese influence in Pakistan. It must be pointed out that Pakistan’s armed forces hold crucial influence on the country’s internal politics and continuously claim that they are the only force that keeps the Indian threat to Pakistan at bay. 

Thus, the current crisis in Pakistan may turn out to be a challenge for New Delhi after all. Instability in Pakistan could undermine regional security dynamics and intensify existing conflicts, such as those related to Kashmir. The crisis may divert Pakistan's attention from counterterrorism efforts, potentially enabling terrorist groups to operate more freely. The political crisis could disrupt any existing peace processes or dialogues between India and Pakistan, hindering efforts to resolve long-standing issues. India's exports to Pakistan might also get affected due to the crisis.

Way Forward: India can take advantage of the crisis in Pakistan to draw attention to worries about transnational terrorism and encourage international pressure on Pakistan to address these issues. To mitigate any potential negative effects of Pakistan’s political instability, India should enhance its ties with its neighbours and other regional powers. 

In the midst of this crisis, India may take advantage of the opportunity to settle down the Kashmir talks as well as establish peace along the border. The question is whether India has any hope when Pakistan’s government is weakened and elections are pending under economic uncertainty. By the time their new government is formed, India will be busy with its own election, which brings its own compulsions and challenges. There is an alternative opinion circulating in the country from several politicians and commentators that India should help Pakistan. While helping Pakistan on humanitarian grounds, we cannot forget Pakistan’s highly unpredictable nature. In 1999, we saw a rise in terrorism in J&K, but we were positive about the relationship at that time, due to the efforts of then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who attended SAARC meetings and bilateral meetings in 1988 and 1989. The same thing happened in the 1999 Kargil War; PM Vajpayee made a historic trip to Lahore at that time, looking forward to a positive relationship between them. In spite of Pakistan’s interest in peace and dialogue, India must be aware of its inconsistent behavior, which is bolstered by Pakistani military strength.

Conclusion: The political crisis in Pakistan presents both challenges and opportunities for India in terms of regional security and bilateral relations. While the crisis may increase cross-border tensions and compromise regional stability, it also gives India diplomatic leverage, opportunities for counterterrorism cooperation, and a chance to engage in constructive dialogue.

Question #2. The basis of foreign policy with the neighborhood should be very strong because you cannot change your neighbors. Discuss the relationship between India and the it's neighbours in light of various dimensions associated with neighbourhood relations? 

Answer 2. India has a large and complex neighbourhood. India has 11 countries in its neighbourhood, out of which 7 countries share a land boundary with India. India‘s defence and security acquire preeminence.  Relations are large and complex covering aspects of security, migration, trade, water sharing, and presence of outside great powers in the neighbourhood.  All these issues get closely entwined making it difficult to track and resolve any one of the issues in isolation.  Dynamics of these relations change rapidly as issues move up and down the priority list depending upon the exigencies of time. 

Currently, India’s relationships with its neighbors are very worrisome especially with China, Pakistan and Nepal. Over the years, India has struggled to forge strong neighbourhood relations despite its geographical proximity and historical, religious, economic, ethnic and cultural linkages with neighbouring states. Out of all neighbouring states, as of now, China and Pakistan has become major issues. PM Modi through his visits to Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh, has made efforts to establish routine contacts with these neighbours.

There are major five problem areas in India’s approach towards the neighborhood: 

(a) the lack of a balanced political perspective; 

(b) the power differentials; 

(c) India’s economic clout; 

(d) extra-regional powers; and 

(e) mindsets, diplomatic styles and personalities.

China is increasing its economic power not only in the neighboring countries, it has been doing so in Africa and South America. China is the biggest and the most powerful neighbor.  Anytime China did not succeed in diplomatic maneuvers, it resorted to hostility. India also missed a number of opportunities when she could have obtained a very favorable agreement from China.  Pandit Nehru could have accepted the offer to be a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council instead of passing the offer to China for which India has paid a heavy price and will continue to do so. Chinese encroachments into India and other anti-India activities are still going on and China supports Pakistan militarily and economically and it helped directly and indirectly Pakistan to acquire nuclear and missile capabilities.  China openly supports Pakistan on the Kashmir issue as well. China’s aid to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Maldives surpassed the economic aid provided by India.  China got an agreement with Sri Lanka to build a commercial seaport there which it converted to a military base. 

Neighbourhood First Policy: The ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ is the anchor point of India’s general foreign policy since independence in 1947. Subsequently, the Neighbourhood First Policy has evolved, was debilitated, and has been reformed under the various prime ministers of India. Based on preferences and perceptions about the South Asian neighbourhood, the Neighbourhood First Policy has been implemented differently. The connection between India and the countries of South Asia is the focus of the Neighbourhood First Policy (NFP), which is also known as the South Asian Foreign Policy (SAFP). India’s strategy towards its near neighbours is based on efforts to promote South Asian peace and cooperation. Its NFP approach prioritises countries on the periphery, with an emphasis on promoting trade, connectivity, and contact among people. It is critical for India to build long-term links between its domestic ambitions and its foreign policy objectives if it is to play a significant role in the growing politics of a multipolar world.

Since 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to revive the NFP by first inviting all heads of state from South Asia to his oath-taking ceremony. India's bilateral trade with countries under its Neighbourhood First policy has increased to $41.6 billion in the financial year 2021-22. The Neighbourhood First policy, among other things, is aimed at enhancing physical, digital and people to people connectivity across the region, as well as augmenting trade and commerce.

Salient features of the Neighbourhood First Policy:

• Immediate priority to neighbours: Priority is to improve the relations with immediate neighbours as peace and tranquillity in South Asia is essential for realizing development agenda. The neighbourhood first policy of actively focuses on improving ties with India’s immediate neighbours.
• Dialogue: It focuses on vigorous regional diplomacy by engaging with neighbouring nations and building political connectivity through dialogue. First initiative in this direction was extending an invitation to all heads of government of SAARC countries for the oath taking ceremony of the Prime minister in 2014.
• Resolving bilateral issues: Focus is on resolving bilateral issues through mutual agreement. For instance, India and Bangladesh have signed a pact to operationalise the historic Land Boundary Agreement (LBA).
• Connectivity: India has entered into MoU with members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). These agreements ensure a free flow of resources, energy, goods, labour, and information across borders.
• Economic Cooperation: It focuses on enhancing trade ties with neighbours. India has participated and invested in SAARC as a vehicle for development in the region. One such example is the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) grouping for energy development i.e. motor vehicles, waterpower management and inter-grid connectivity.
• Technical Cooperation: The policy put emphasis on technical cooperation. Recently a dedicated SAARC satellite was developed to share the fruits of the technology like tele-medicine, e-learning etc. with the people across South Asia.
• Disaster management: India’s offer cooperation on disaster response, resource management, weather forecasting and communication and also capabilities and expertise in disaster management for all South Asian citizens. For example, India provided immense assistance to its neighbour Nepal in the aftermath of the 2016
• Military and defence cooperation: India is also focusing on deepening security in the region through military cooperation. Various exercises like Surya Kiran with Nepal, Sampriti with Bangladesh aim to strengthen defence relations. Also, India has committed to play a greater role in capacity building of the Afghan National Army by providing training to them.

Challenges for India

• Relation with Pakistan: Relation with Pakistan, remains India’s biggest diplomatic and security challenge. India’s challenge is to manage relationships with a state which, openly, uses terror as an instrument of state policy and has fractured, multiple power centres.
• Unstable Afghanistan: Afghanistan remains a challenge too. Fragile within and facing state-sponsored external threat from Pakistan, a possible state collapse would spawn jihadist terrorism in all directions from which India is unlikely to remain immune. Indian diplomacy is active in international efforts to stabilise the country.
• China: China is another big challenge that is increasing its presence around India. The relationship is marked with suspicion over China’s policy towards Pakistan, including the construction of the Gwadar port. Also, China-Pakistan economic corridor running through POK.
• Anti-Indian sentiments: Anti-Indian sentiments are getting rooted in the minds of people of region due to perceived notion of India’s big brother attitude and its economic dependence to India. For instance, the recent step of Demonetization impacted many countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar which use the Indian currency as a parallel currency within their borders.

Required measures: India’s immediate neighbourhood directly impacts it geopolitically, geo-strategically and geo-economically because of its vicinity. Thus, working with them is important for India to rise as a superpower. Emphasis must be on sustainable and inclusive development. Strengthening the measures such as;

• Transportation: As the largest country, India should be leading to establish cross-border transport and communication links.
• Developing Markets: India should work with its neighbour in strengthening their markets and its own infrastructure to its neighbours.
• Dialogue: India must ensure its neighbour of continuous support for their development. Efforts must be made to strengthen Indian exports in the region.
• Soft power: India’s soft power and common culture provide an opportunity for India to strengthen its cultural roots further in the region.

Conclusion: India will have to strengthen its own security apparatus while taking steps to engage constructively with its neighbors. Along with building political consensus on development and cooperation at the regional level, it is imperative to build people to people contacts for sustaining peace in the region. With regard to this, newer prospects of integration such as sub-regional cooperation, promoting higher education and culture must be used to tap into the boundless potential that exists in the region. By making use of its soft power, alternative regional arrangements and newer prospects of integration such as education and culture, India can win the trust of its neighbours. The current emphasis on rebuilding the neighbourhood coupled with swift action in the same direction can lead India to construct a strong neighbourhood policy that is mutually beneficial for the region as a whole.