Internal Security (Role of External State & Non-State actors in creating challenges to internal security) by Viraj C Rane

Model Answer

Question #1. With evidence mounting of Pakistan providing tacit support to Taliban, evaluate the security threats that India faces with the new order in Afghanistan. Suggest measures on how India should deal with the situation 

Approach:

• Introduce by giving a brief about recent capture of Afghanistan by Taliban (30 Words)
• Briefly describe India’s past relationship with Taliban (30 Words)
• Enumerate how the capture of Afghanistan by Taliban 2.0 can have adverse impact on India (70 Words)
• List the options available for India to tackle Taliban (50 Words)
• Suggest measures India should take to tackle the adverse impact (70 Words

Hints:

India has historic and strong bilateral ties with its neighbor, Afghanistan, and both are a part of several regional level partnerships, like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Though relations were diminished during the 1990s Afghan civil war. India aided the overthrow of the Taliban 1.0 and became the largest regional provider of humanitarian and reconstruction aid to Afghanistan. India’s strategy in Afghanistan is guided by the desire to prevent a government that would readily provide Pakistan with strategic depth and a safe haven for terror groups. India advocated a peace process that must be led, owned, and controlled by Afghans. 

Taliban 2.0 and its security impacts on India:

• Issue of Indian Security: Taliban’s renewed support for international terrorism and Pakistan’s re-direction of jihadi groups that have allegedly fought with the Taliban towards India.
• Disturbances in Kashmir: Afghan soil can be used to harness and support insurgency and terrorist activities in Jammu and Kashmir
• Drug Trafficking: Given that Afghanistan lies in the infamous Golden-Crescent region, opium trafficking might see an increase.
• Religious Fundamentalism & internal security: India faces a challenge to de-radicalize the region for long-lasting peace and stability.
• New Regional Geopolitical Developments: There can be new regional geopolitical alignments (such as China-Pakistan-Taliban) that may go against the interests of India.
• Security of India’s investments in Afghanistan: India made an Investment of around $3 billion in Afghanistan. This will be at risk. Also, India’s plan to include Afghanistan in its International North-South Transport Corridor might not fructify.

India’s options to deal with the situation:

• Short Term and Long Term Goal: India’s immediate goal should be the safety and security of its personnel and investments. The long-term goal should be finding a political solution to the crisis. None of this can be achieved unless it works together with the regional powers
• Talking with the Taliban: Talking to the Taliban would allow India to seek security guarantees from the insurgents in return for continued development assistance or other pledges as well as explore the possibility of the Taliban’s autonomy from Pakistan. 
• At this point, talking to the Taliban looks inevitable. But India should not overlook the deep ties between Pakistan’s security establishment and the Haqqani Network, a major faction within the Taliban.
• Taking Afghan Government in Confidence: There is no guarantee that India’s quest for engagement with the Taliban would produce a desirable outcome. So India should broad-base its options.
• Regional solution: There is a convergence of interests between India and three key regional players — China, Russia, and Iran — in seeing a political settlement in Afghanistan.
• Russian Support: Russia has cultivated links with the Taliban in recent years. India would need Russia’s support in any form of direct engagement with the Taliban.
• Bonhomie with China: India should talk with China, with the objective of finding a political settlement and lasting stability in Afghanistan.
• Significance of Iran: Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan and has a close resemblance to ethnic minorities. 

Way Forward

• India has to balance its commitment to a multi-ethnic Afghanistan with the realpolitik of engaging the Taliban regime.
• Given the Taliban’s extremist past, the Indian government will have to tread carefully while negotiating with the Taliban.
• Peace in the Kashmir Valley remains a top priority for the Indian government. India’s outreach to the Taliban will have to carefully offset any anti-India behavior that Pakistan might force on the Taliban.
• It is in India’s interest to look beyond the nation-building and democracy-promotion paradigms and strive to re-establish a working relationship with the Taliban regime.
• On the front of refugees from Afghanistan, India should come up with a clear-cut policy that creates a balance between India’s moral value of ‘Atithi Devo Bhava’ with national security imperatives.

Conclusion

It is imperative for India to pivot away from its policy of calculated indifference, and embrace strategic engagement. It is in India’s, and the region’s interests at large, to have a seat at the table over Afghanistan’s future. None of this, however, should require India to commit to ideologically entrenched and anachronistic positions that jeopardize its own interests. Taking advantage of its goodwill established over the years with key stakeholders in the Middle East – e.g. Iran and Russia, India can step up to a greater role.

Question #2. The third Bodo peace accord has brought the curtain down on over three decades of insurgency in Bodoland areas, which is critical for the return of peace in the Bodo heartland. Elaborate.

Approach:

• In the introduction, give a brief overview about the Bodos 
• Briefly describe the Bodoland issue. 
• Enumerate the provisions of Bodoland peace accord 
• Highlight the importance of the Bodoland Peace accord on India’s internal security and lessons that can be learnt from it. 
• Conclude with the way forward 

Hints:

Bodos are the single largest tribal community in Assam, making up over 5-6 per cent of the state’s population. They have controlled large parts of Assam in the past. The four districts in Assam — Kokrajhar, Baksa, Udalguri and Chirang — that constitute the Bodo Territorial Area District (BTAD), are home to several ethnic groups.

?Bodoland Issue

• The Bodos have had a long history of separatist demands, marked by armed struggle.
• In 1966-67, the demand for a separate state called Bodoland was raised under the banner of the Plains Tribals Council of Assam (PTCA), a political outfit.
• 1986 - The Armed group, Bodo Security Forces emerged. It renamed itself the ‘National Democratic Front of Bodoland’. 
• In 1987 - An unrest by Bodos was seen due to the culmination of the Assam Accord, which addressed the demands of protection and safeguards for the “Assamese people ''. This led the Bodos to launch a movement to protect their own identity.
• In 1990s - Due to Indian Security Forces extensive operations on NDFB, the latter fled to Bhutan. 
• After that, 3 Bodo Accords have been signed, first in 1993, then in 2003 and lastly in 2020.

Provisions of Bodo Peace Accord, 2020

• The Central government signed a tripartite agreement with the state government and different Bodo groups, including four factions of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), for a “permanent” solution to the Bodo issue. Some features:
• It provides for “alteration of area of BTAD” and “provisions for Bodos outside Bodo Territorial Autonomous District (BTAD).”
• The BTAD was renamed Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR).
• It provides for more legislative, executive, administrative and financial powers to Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). 
• Provision for rehabilitation of surrendered militants of NDFB and bringing a special development package of Rs. 1,500 crore for the region.

Impact of third Bodo Peace Accord:

• Reduction in Violence: As NDFB, the main group fighting for Bodoland has signed the Accord, it will lay down arms leading to reduction in Violence in the sensitive North east region of India.
• Altogether 1,615 cadres of the four NDFB factions formally laid down their arms before the Chief Minister of Assam.
• Ripple Effect: The augmented area and powers of the BTC, under the new accord, may trigger fresh aspirations in the nine autonomous councils in Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram to graduate to the new model.
• Protests by other ethnic communities residing in Bodoland: There has also been a growing divide between Bodos and non-Bodos living in BTAD after 600 villages, allegedly with zero Bodo population, were included in BTAD.

Conclusion

The North East region of India is composed of many ethnic groups with conflicting territories. The Bodo Peace Accord has established a landmark for future resolution of these conflicts. But it has also given encouragement to other Ethnic communities to demand their separate states. Thus, the Central and State Governments need to balance between resolving conflicts and maintaining territories of states for a peaceful future.