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IMD forecasts ‘normal’ monsoon, no El Nino
Context
India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon for 2022. Meanwhile, it downgraded the definition of what is an average rainfall.
About
IMD’s Monsoon Forecast for 2022
- IMD updated long period average rainfall to 87 cm. India would get 99% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall.
- Last change in long period average (LPA) rainfall was in 2018 where it was changed from 89 cm to 88 cm, and now is again revised to 87 cm.
- A monsoon is considered “normal” when rainfall falls between 96% and 104% of the LPA.
- There will be a weak El Nino indicating a negligible adverse impact on Indian monsoon while there will be a favourable La Nina phenomenon.
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India Meteorological Department
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Long Period Average
- LPA is the averages of rainfall received over a 50-year period between 1951 and 2001 which comes to 89 cm of rainfall.
- It recorded during the months from June to September.
- It is set as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for the monsoon season every year.
- Following are the five rainfall distribution categories on an all-India scale maintained by IMD:
- Excess:When departure of actual rainfall is more than 110% of LPA.
- Above Normal:When actual rainfall is 104-110% of LPA.
- Normal or Near Normal:When per cent departure of actual rainfall is +/-10% of LPA, i.e., between 96-104% of LPA.
- Below Normal:When departure of actual rainfall is less than 10% of LPA, e., 90-96% of LPA.
- Deficient:When departure of actual rainfall is less than 90% of LPA.
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