Improving Early Warnings for Cyclones

Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes, typhoons, or simply cyclones, have been predicted with great precision by national and regional weather agencies globally. However, the unprecedented warming of the oceans and the lack of certain types of data have recently made it challenging to predict the track, wind speeds, and accompanying rainfall for cyclones in all ocean basins and to provide early warnings for the impacted people.

Key-highlights of the Situation

• Increasing Cyclone Intensity: Rising ocean temperatures contribute to the intensification of cyclones, leading to more frequent and severe storms.
• Rapid Intensification (RI): Recent cyclones have exhibited rapid intensification, wherein wind speeds increase by more than 55 kilometres per hour within a 24-hour period.
• Data Gaps: Inadequate monitoring of subsurface ocean temperatures and limited availability of data from exclusive economic zones hinder accurate forecasting.
• Importance of Early Warnings: Timely warnings are crucial for enabling preparedness measures and minimizing the impact of cyclones on vulnerable coastal communities.

1: Dimension- Factors Influencing Cyclone Prediction

• Ocean Warming: Unprecedented warming of ocean waters fuels the formation and intensification of cyclones, making them more unpredictable.
• Rapid Intensification: RI events, characterized by sudden increases in wind speeds, pose challenges for forecasters due to their unpredictability.
• Data Deficiency: Insufficient monitoring of subsurface temperatures and a lack of data from exclusive economic zones limit the accuracy of cyclone forecasts.

2: Dimension- Impact of Improved Early Warnings

• Reduced Loss of Life and Property: Early warnings enable authorities and communities to evacuate vulnerable areas and implement disaster preparedness measures, reducing casualties and damage.
• Enhanced Resilience: Access to timely and accurate forecasts allows communities to better prepare for cyclones, improving their resilience to natural disasters.
• Socio-economic Stability: Minimizing the impact of cyclones through early warnings helps maintain socio-economic stability by preserving infrastructure and livelihoods.

3: Dimension- Strategies for Enhancing Early Warning Systems

• Investment in Data Collection: Increased investment in monitoring systems, such as buoys and moorings, is essential for gathering comprehensive data on ocean temperatures and other factors influencing cyclone formation.
• Regional Collaboration: Collaboration among countries in sharing meteorological data and resources strengthens forecasting capabilities and improves early warning systems.
• Capacity Building: Building the capacity of meteorological agencies and communities to interpret and respond to cyclone forecasts enhances the effectiveness of early warning systems.
• Technological Innovation: Leveraging advancements in technology, such as remote sensing and numerical weather prediction models, enhances the accuracy and timeliness of cyclone forecasts.

Mains Practice Question

Q: “How can early warnings for cyclones be improved in the context of climate change? Discuss the challenges and suggest measures.”