Context

The winter season in the Kashmir and Ladakh region, known for its picturesque snow-covered landscapes, is experiencing an unusual dearth of snowfall.

Impact: Impacting the tourist industry but also carrying significant repercussions for agriculture, horticulture, water resources, and the local economy, raises concerns about the changing climatic patterns in the region.

Background

• In recent years, the Kashmir valley has witnessed a declining trend in snowfall, and the current season stands out as particularly remarkable.
• The iconic tourist destination of Gulmarg, renowned for its winter sports, has seen a stark absence of snow, leading to a substantial decrease in tourist footfall and adversely affecting the business of ski resorts.

Factors Contributing to Reduced Snowfall:

1. Western Disturbances:

• Winter precipitation in the Himalayan region is primarily influenced by Western Disturbances – eastward-moving rain-bearing wind systems originating beyond Afghanistan and Iran.
• These disturbances play a crucial role in bringing snowfall to Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh during the winter months.
• However, the frequency of these disturbances has shown a declining trend in recent years.
• In December, only one feeble western disturbance event occurred, failing to bring any substantial rains.
• A decline in the overall frequency of western disturbance events has led to reduced precipitation during the winter months.

2. Climate Change:

• The overarching factor contributing to the decreasing trend of snowfall is climate change.
• Atmospheric scientists highlight that rising temperatures, particularly in higher elevation areas, are a significant factor.
• Recent studies have shown a 43% decline in the mean frequency of strong and extreme Western Disturbances.

3. El Nino Impact:

• The persistence of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has further complicated the situation.
• El Nino has disrupted the global atmospheric circulation, potentially contributing to the deficit in precipitation in the region.
• While El Nino is not the sole reason, it appears to exacerbate the already existing challenges.

Implications:

1. Short-Term Consequences:

• Tourism Downturn:The absence of snow in Gulmarg has led to a significant decline in tourist arrivals, impacting the local economy and ski resorts.
• Forest Fires and Agricultural Drought:Dry spells can result in an increase in forest fires and agricultural drought, adversely affecting crop production.

2. Long-Term Challenges:

• Hydroelectricity Generation:Reduced snowfall poses a threat to hydroelectricity generation in the region.
• Glacier Melting:The decline in snow cover may accelerate glacier melting, contributing to long-term environmental changes.
• Drinking Water Supply:Scanty snowfall implies minimal groundwater recharge, posing challenges for the region's drinking water supply.

3. Agriculture and Horticulture:

• Impact on Winter Crops:Winter crops crucial for the local economy, especially horticulture, face a decline in yields due to the absence of steady moisture from winter snow.
• Reduced Apple and Saffron Yields:Apples and saffron, vital components of the local economy, witness adverse effects on yields.