2023 El Niño: Climate Impact and Forecast

The 2023-2024 El Niño event has emerged as one of the most powerful on record, with significant implications for global climate patterns. Despite a weakening trend, its influence is expected to persist in the coming months, impacting various regions worldwide.

1: Dimension - Intensity and Duration:

• Exceptional strength: According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the ongoing El Niño event ranks among the top five strongest on record. Its peak intensity, observed between November 2023 and January 2024, saw temperatures rise approximately 2 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Persistence: Although the El Niño is gradually weakening, there is still a 60% chance of its continuation during March-May, with a subsequent shift towards neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) from April-June. The event's lingering effects are expected to influence global weather patterns in the months ahead.

2: Dimension - Climate Impact:

• Global temperature anomalies: The prevailing El Niño conditions have contributed to above-normal temperatures across the globe. The WMO forecasts continued warmth over nearly all land areas from March to May, exacerbating existing climate challenges.
• Regional climate effects: El Niño typically results in varied climate impacts across different regions. While it may bring increased rainfall to the Horn of Africa and the southern United States, it often leads to dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa, affecting agricultural productivity and water resources.

3: Dimension - Societal and Economic Implications:

• Environmental and economic consequences: El Niño events significantly influence societies and economies worldwide. By disrupting weather patterns, they can pose risks to agriculture, water resources, and public health. Accurate seasonal forecasts provided by organizations like the WMO help countries prepare and mitigate the impacts on vulnerable sectors.
• Historical significance: The prolonged duration and intensity of the 2023 El Niño underscore its historical significance. While El Niño events are cyclical phenomena, their severity and duration can vary, requiring proactive measures to address their consequences.