A crisis in WANA that no one talks about

The devastating conflict in Sudan has emerged as the world's worst humanitarian crisis in 2023, surpassing even the Gaza situation. The conflict, involving the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Force (RSF), has led to catastrophic humanitarian conditions and drawn international attention.

Historical Background

• Long History of Strife: Sudan has a history of civil conflict and military coups since gaining independence in 1956. It has experienced 15 military coups and two civil wars, including the Darfur conflict involving the Janjaweed militia, the precursor to the RSF.
• Autocratic Rule and Its Collapse: The 30-year autocratic rule of Omar Hassan al-Bashir ended with a military coup in April 2019. Efforts to establish a civilian-military government were undermined, leading to another coup in October 2021 and the current conflict between SAF and RSF.
• Emergence of the Current Conflict: The conflict began in April 2023 between SAF and RSF, exacerbated by the failure of a proposed integration plan and the ambitions of the two military leaders. Despite SAF’s larger military, it struggled to control the situation, leading to widespread devastation.

International and Regional Implications

• Foreign Involvement: Sudan's strategic location and resources have attracted foreign interests. Egypt and Iran support SAF, while Russia’s Wagner Group and the UAE back RSF. The involvement of multiple international actors complicates the conflict.
• Failed Peace Initiatives: Numerous attempts by international bodies like the UN and regional organizations to broker peace have failed. The UN Security Council’s resolution was largely symbolic, and recent peace talks in Geneva ended without a ceasefire agreement.
• Impact on India: India has significant stakes in Sudan due to trade and investment interests. It evacuated its nationals early in the conflict but remains concerned about the potential revival of Islamic militancy affecting its interests.

Indian Stakes and Strategic Considerations

• Economic and Investment Ties: India’s trade with Sudan reached $2 billion in 2022-23, with a favorable trade balance. India also has substantial investments in Sudan’s upstream sector and has provided considerable financial aid through lines of credit.
• People-to-People Relations: Strong people-to-people ties exist through Sudanese students and medical tourists in India, reflecting the deep-rooted relationship between the two countries.
• Potential Threats: A prolonged conflict in Sudan could lead to increased Islamic militancy, posing a potential threat to India’s security interests in the region.

Practice Question

Q. “To achieve a sustainable impact in South Sudan and across the broader region, India must modernize its peacekeeping strategies to align with its evolving foreign policy objectives.” Comment