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A three-dimensional view of the Israel-Iran crisis
Context
Recent developments in the Middle East have highlighted escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, marked by an unprecedented direct attack by Iran on Israel and subsequent responses.
Netanyahu's Dilemma:
- Undermined strategy: Despite Netanyahu's longstanding opposition to Iran and projection of toughness, Iran's recent direct attack on Israel has undermined Israel's deterrence strategy.
- Weak response: The Biden administration's reluctance to support Israeli retaliation against Iran further limited Netanyahu's options, leaving him with a weak response that did little to bolster Israeli deterrence.
- Strategic reality: Netanyahu's preference for force against Iran was tempered by the strategic reality, where Israeli military actions needed U.S. support and participation.
The Ayatollah's Calculus:
- Iran's strategic patience in its shadow war with Israel has shifted with recent developments, including improved ties with Russia and China and perceived weaknesses in Israel's regional position.
- The bombing of Iran's embassy annex triggered Iran's decision to impose a cost on Israel's strikes on its officials, marking a change in Tehran's strategic thinking.
- Iran's assessment of a reduced U.S. appetite for prolonged conflict in the Middle East, coupled with its strategic partnerships and perceived vulnerabilities in Israel's position, emboldened Tehran to launch a direct attack on Israel.
Mains Question:
Discuss the recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, analyzing the strategic dilemmas faced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the evolving calculus of the Iranian leadership.
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