China’s Proposal for a No-First-Use Treaty

China’s proposal for a no-first-use treaty on nuclear weapons, presented at the United Nations Conference on Disarmament, is a significant development in nuclear security discussions. This proposal has implications for global nuclear strategy and demands serious consideration from the world, including India.

China’s No-First-Use Proposal and Its Implications

• Introduction to the Issue: China’s senior officials dealing with nuclear weapons policy have proposed that nuclear-weapon states should negotiate and conclude a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other.
• Scepticism over China’s Intentions: Despite China’s historical adherence to a no-first-use doctrine, its use of proxies to hold out nuclear threats against strategic adversaries and the expansion of its nuclear arsenal raise questions about its commitment to this doctrine.
• Global No-First-Use Arrangement: A global no-first-use arrangement is seen as a more sensible approach than other existing or proposed arms control frameworks. It is viewed as a step in the right direction, better than the status quo, and not too painful.

Global Nuclear Risks and the Urgency for a No-First-Use Treaty

• Failure of the NPT System: The nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) system is considered a failure, serving only the interests of the five countries that use it to claim they are ‘legitimate’ nuclear powers.
• Urgency Due to Climate Crisis: In the face of the climate crisis, a nuclear exchange could tip the planet into a different climate regime. Even a limited nuclear exchange could cause over 690 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emission, higher than the UK’s annual total at that time.
• Global No-First-Use as a Way Station: Global no-first-use is attractive as it is a way station - better than the status quo, not too painful, and a move in the right direction overall.

India’s Role and the Need for a Broader Coalition

• India’s Interest in a No-First-Use Regime: A global no-first-use regime is in India’s interest, and New Delhi should support the idea. However, Beijing’s reluctance to engage India in international discussions due to its stance that India is not a nuclear power poses a challenge.
• Need for a Broader Coalition: The matter is too serious to be left to the self-serving NPT clique alone. A broader coalition of powers, many of which are part of the G20 but also some that are not, needs to be brought together to create sustained pressure towards this end.
• China’s Role in Bringing Other Countries into the Arrangement: If China invites Indian participation in global no-first-use talks, then the world will know that Beijing’s proposal is genuine. A wise leadership in Beijing will recognize that India and China have common interests on this issue. The onus should be placed on China to bring North Korea and Pakistan into the arrangement.

UPSC Mains Questions

Q. Discuss the limitations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in the current geopolitical climate. How could a global no-first-use agreement serve as a more effective framework for nuclear risk reduction?