Delhi must look beyond H-1B

The ongoing debate in India about the potential implications of Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. President, particularly regarding technology policies and their impact on Indian interests, including tech talent export, data governance, and geopolitical strategies.

H-1B Visa and Immigration Policy

• H-1B Visa Controversy: The debate around H-1B visas is a contentious issue, with the tech industry advocating for skilled immigration while addressing concerns of anti-immigrant sentiments in the U.S. Trump’s second term is likely to focus on balancing immigration needs with stricter control over illegal entry.
• India’s Role: India, as a major supplier of tech talent, is unlikely to lose out in the H-1B system, as demand for skilled Indian professionals remains high. However, India needs to cooperate more on preventing illegal immigration while supporting legal, merit-based immigration channels.
• Bipartisan Divisions: In the U.S., bipartisan tensions between supporting skilled immigration for economic growth and curtailing illegal immigration remain unresolved, complicating the H-1B visa issue.

Trump’s Technology Policies

• Political Polarization and Social Media: Trump’s technology policies are likely to deepen political polarization in the U.S. Social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter have been accused of bias, and the shift in platform policies could affect both U.S. and global political dynamics, with potential spillovers to other democracies.
• Techno-libertarianism: Trump’s alignment with “techno-libertarians” such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel may lead to deregulation of emerging technologies, shifting focus from ethical oversight to innovation-driven policies, especially in AI development.
• Impact on Geopolitics: Trump’s technology policies, particularly in the context of competition with China, could lead to intensified technological and military confrontations. His administration is expected to pursue a more aggressive stance against China, particularly in AI and defense technology.

Implications for India’s Tech Diplomacy

• U.S.-India Technological Cooperation: Trump’s tech policies could strengthen U.S.-India collaboration in technological innovation, especially in AI and defense, despite tensions around issues like data localisation and trade policies.
• China and Global Tech Race: India’s strategic positioning in the global tech race, especially in collaboration with the U.S., will be shaped by Trump’s stance on China and technological sanctions. India may face challenges balancing its relationship with both the U.S. and China in the tech sector.
• India’s Diplomacy Role: India’s tech diplomacy will need to find common ground with the U.S. on technology and defense while navigating Trump’s policies, including potential shifts in global governance of emerging technologies.

Practice Question:

Q. Analyze the potential implications of Donald Trump’s second term on global technological governance, focusing on the U.S.-India relations, tech industry policies, and the geopolitical competition with China.