Do Kyiv, the West really want India to play a role in mediating with Russia?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Ukraine, alongside his diplomatic engagements in Moscow, highlights India's nuanced stance on the Russia-Ukraine war. Modi's trip reflects India's balancing act between advocating for peace and maintaining its strategic interests with Russia. The Supreme Court's rulings and India's evolving foreign policy have brought this issue into sharper focus.

Modi’s Diplomatic Engagement

• Visit to Moscow and Kyiv: Modi's visits to both Moscow and Kyiv underscore India's effort to balance its relations between Russia and Ukraine while advocating for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
• Statement to Putin: In September 2022, Modi’s assertion to Putin that "this is not an era of war" demonstrated India's indirect disapproval of Russian actions, reflecting a diplomatic stance that seeks to respect international norms without alienating Russia.
• India-Ukraine Joint Statement: The joint statement from Modi and President Zelenskyy emphasizes a commitment to international law, including respect for territorial integrity, while acknowledging the need for practical solutions for peace.

India’s Foreign Policy Constraints

• Balancing Peace and Practicality: Modi's approach, as outlined in the joint statement, shows a shift from principled positions to a focus on practical solutions for peace, indicating India's willingness to engage but within the limits of its strategic constraints.
• Historical Parallel: India's reluctance to publicly criticize Russia mirrors its past stance during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, where India also avoided direct criticism despite its disapproval.
• Economic Considerations: Ukraine and Western allies expect India to exert economic pressure on Russia, such as ceasing oil purchases. However, India’s continued energy imports from Russia highlight the complexities of balancing diplomatic and economic interests.

Implications and Challenges

• Limited Indian Influence: Despite Modi’s diplomatic efforts, there is skepticism about India's ability to effect substantial change in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as major powers like the US and China dominate the geopolitical landscape.
• Impact on Bilateral Relations: Historical grievances, such as Ukraine’s arms supplies to Pakistan and its condemnation of India’s nuclear tests, have impacted the India-Ukraine relationship, complicating efforts for stronger ties.
• Current Role of India: The effectiveness of India’s involvement in peace efforts is questioned, with suggestions that major powers may prefer India to focus on condemnation and economic pressure rather than leading a diplomatic initiative.

Practice Question

What are the challenges and limitations faced by India in influencing the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and how historical precedents inform India’s current stance?