Russia and China: an old friendship poses new threats

The relationship between China and Russia has evolved over the past few years, especially following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Initially, the two countries declared a “no limits” friendship, but the rhetoric has since cooled. Despite this, their strategic partnership continues to grow, causing concern in the West due to its political, military, and economic implications.

Nature of the Sino-Russian Partnership:

• Limits on the Relationship: The Sino-Russian partnership, though growing, has evident limitations. While China has provided indirect support for Russia, it has refrained from offering direct military assistance in the war against Ukraine. Both countries also manage each other's ambitions, seeking pragmatic cooperation rather than ideological alignment.
• Economic and Military Cooperation: Despite these limits, the two countries have expanded their economic and military ties, with joint military exercises signaling their combined strength. However, this cooperation does not reflect the interoperability seen in the US-European alliances.
• Differing Strategies: Russia’s approach is more disruptive, while China’s goal is to shape the current global order to its advantage. This divergence in strategies suggests an alignment based on mutual interests rather than a formal alliance, making the relationship more flexible and sustainable.

Global Implications and Challenges:

• Rising Threat to the West: The partnership between China, Russia, and other states like Iran and North Korea has raised alarms in the West, with concerns about a new cold war. Nuclear risks and potential flashpoints, such as Taiwan, have rekindled fears of global instability.
• Challenges for the US and NATO: Internal divisions within Western democracies, exemplified by potential shifts in US foreign policy under Donald Trump, make it difficult to counter the growing Sino-Russian alliance. NATO faces increasing challenges in maintaining cohesion and adapting to a changing global order.
• Economic Pressures on China and Russia: Both China and Russia face economic challenges despite their growing cooperation. China’s economy, struggling after years of rapid growth, faces new difficulties, while Russia’s military and economic weaknesses have been exposed by the war in Ukraine. These vulnerabilities complicate their global ambitions.

The Rise of Multipolarity in Global Affairs:

• Multipolar World Order: Unlike the Cold War’s bipolar structure, the current global landscape is multipolar, with countries like India, South Africa, Turkey, and Indonesia asserting independent foreign policies. This shift is reshaping global alliances and power dynamics.
• Economic Interdependence: Despite efforts by the West to decouple from China, the global economy remains deeply integrated. Western sanctions on Russia and decreasing trade with China show signs of shifting economic relations, yet China’s global economic footprint remains significant.
• Need for Global Cooperation: Challenges such as climate change and global health require international cooperation. However, national interests often take precedence, as seen during the pandemic. The growing divides between countries pose risks to global stability, and an escalatory spiral must be avoided.

Practice Question:

Q. Critically examine the implications of the growing Sino-Russian partnership in the context of a multipolar world order, highlighting its impact on global security, economic relations, and Western alliances.