Why Scrutiny of lower fertility rates isn’t the answer to the delimitation crisis

Population issues in India are back in focus, with discussions about the Census and delimitation of Parliamentary seats. The Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have expressed concerns about potential reductions in parliamentary representation due to their states’ declining fertility rates. This issue has sparked a broader debate on the implications of differential population growth rates among states and the political, economic, and social consequences.

Political Implications and Delimitation Freeze

• Delimitation of Parliamentary Seats: The political response to population growth in India has been to freeze the delimitation of parliamentary seats based on population for 25 years, starting in 1976 and extended in 2001. This freeze has ensured that states with slower population growth are not penalized in terms of parliamentary representation.
• Concerns of Southern States: States like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, with relatively lower fertility rates, are concerned about losing parliamentary seats due to the freeze. These states are considering policy measures, including incentivizing higher fertility rates, to maintain their political representation at the national level.
• Alternative Electoral Systems: Alternative proposals, such as allocating seats based on parties’ vote shares, have been discussed, but these solutions are considered impractical and may not be suitable for India's federal structure. Extending the delimitation freeze for another 25 years appears to be a more feasible political solution.

Economic and Fiscal Consequences

• Impact on Resource Allocation: Population plays a significant role in determining the flow of resources from the Centre to states, with population being a key criterion in the Finance Commission’s allocations. States with higher populations tend to receive a larger share of resources, which can lead to inequities for states that have successfully reduced their fertility rates.
• Finance Commission's Adjustments: The 14th and 15th Finance Commissions adjusted for the reduced fertility rate by introducing the "demographic change" variable, giving more weight to states that have lowered their fertility rates. This approach helps offset the disadvantages faced by states that have worked to control population growth.
• Need for Accelerated Economic Growth: In response to the disparity in population growth rates, accelerating economic growth in lagging states through initiatives like the aspirational district program is vital. This requires innovative strategies from both the Centre and states to address the economic disparities exacerbated by population growth rates.

Addressing Population Growth Directly

• High Fertility States' Demographic Challenges: India’s population growth is uneven, with some states, mainly in the northern and central parts, having a fertility rate higher than the replacement level (2.1). Efforts to reduce fertility rates in these states should focus on enhancing women's empowerment and improving reproductive health services.
• State-Specific Approaches: Rather than attempting to increase fertility in states with low TFR, which would be counterproductive, the focus should be on states with higher fertility rates. These states need targeted interventions that improve access to family planning, healthcare, and education to empower couples to make informed reproductive choices.
• Challenges of Redistribution and Population Mobility: While migration could help redistribute population, large-scale permanent migration poses significant social challenges. Therefore, the solution lies in tackling the root causes of high fertility through local interventions that respect regional contexts.

Practice Question

Q. Discuss the implications of differential population growth rates in India for political representation, economic resource allocation, and social harmony. What measures can be adopted to address these challenges?