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As Another Trump Era Looms: NATO's Ukraine Challenge and India's Diplomatic Dance
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Context
The recent NATO summit in Washington DC highlights the alliance's support for Ukraine amidst potential changes in US leadership and its increasing focus on China, contrasting with India's multi-alignment diplomacy.
NATO's Evolving Strategy:
- Ukraine Support: NATO committed $43 billion in direct military aid to Ukraine, establishing a liaison office in Kyiv for aid coordination.
- Trump-proofing Measures: Initiatives taken to bolster European security and Ukraine's defense capabilities in anticipation of potential US policy shifts.
- Indo-Pacific Focus: NATO's Strategic Concept 2022 emphasizes China, merging Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security theaters.
Challenges and Uncertainties:
- Resource Constraints: NATO faces resource limitations with multiple commitments to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and internal stock replenishment.
- Membership Dilemma: Lack of clear timeline for Ukraine's NATO membership, despite long-term security agreements with individual nations.
- Trump Factor: Possibility of reduced US support to NATO and Ukraine under a potential Trump presidency.
India's Diplomatic Balancing Act:
- Multi-alignment Approach: PM Modi's Moscow visit balanced with a trip to Austria, showcasing India's nuanced diplomacy.
- Convergence on China: Potential for informal dialogue with NATO on hybrid threats in the Indo-Pacific, aligning with India's concerns about China.
- Peace Efforts: India's ongoing attempts to promote diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine conflict, despite challenging geopolitical dynamics.
UPSC Mains Question
Q. "India's multi-alignment diplomacy faces increasing challenges in a polarized world." Discuss with reference to India's relations with Russia, the West, and its stance on the Ukraine conflict.
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