Challenges of Cyclone Forecasting and Climate Change in India

As meteorologists anticipated a historically active hurricane season for 2024, the actual situation has deviated significantly, raising questions about the accuracy of existing climatic models.

Current Trends in Cyclone Activity

• Shift in La Niña Forecasts
  • Expectations vs. Reality: A strong La Niña was predicted to emerge this winter, which typically correlates with increased hurricane activity. However, current forecasts suggest a downgrade of La Niña predictions, contributing to the subdued cyclone activity observed this year.
  • Contrasting 2023 Activity: The 2023 hurricane season was notable for its high activity, ranking as the fourth-most active despite the presence of a strong El Niño. This year’s quiet season contradicts conventional expectations, prompting a re-evaluation of the relationship between hurricane activity and El Niño/La Niña phenomena.

Challenges in Cyclone Forecasting

• Improvements and Limitations: While advancements have been made in accurately predicting the trajectory and landfall of hurricanes, forecasting the intensity of cyclones remains problematic. The forecasting community struggles particularly with post-landfall effects, which can cause significant damage and loss of life.
• Rapid Intensification: Historical data show no significant increase in the overall number of cyclones globally, yet there has been a rise in the intensity of storms. Rapid intensification—defined as a wind speed increase of 55 km/h or more within 24 hours—remains difficult to predict, posing additional risks.
• Vulnerabilities in the Indian Context (Climatic Challenges)
  • Increasing Cyclone Activity: The North Indian Ocean, especially the Arabian Sea, has seen a rise in cyclonic activity in recent years. However, the last few years have been atypically quiet, complicating predictions about future cyclone occurrences and their intensities.
  • Chronic vs. Acute Stressors: India faces both chronic climate stressors, such as rising temperatures and sea levels, and acute stressors like extreme rainfall and cyclones. These stressors compound the effects of one another, exacerbating the risks associated with cyclonic events.

What needs to be done (Suggestive Measures)?

• Focus on Rapid Intensification and Landfall Predictions: There is a pressing need for improved forecasting related to rapid intensification and post-landfall impacts of cyclones. Enhanced predictive models could significantly mitigate risks.
• Hyperlocal Risk Mapping: It is essential to develop hyperlocal risk maps for targeted cyclone preparedness. Given India's economic constraints, resources must be allocated strategically to areas most at risk.
• Economic and National Security Implications: India's vulnerability to climate change is not just an environmental issue; it intersects with economic development and national security. A resilient subcontinent is vital for sustained growth and stability.
• Regional Cooperation: Establishing a cooperative framework for weather and climate data sharing among neighboring countries can enhance regional preparedness. Improved forecasting capabilities will benefit not only India but also its wider neighborhood.