GS Analyst: Daily Current Affairs

As meteorologists anticipated a historically active hurricane season for 2024, the actual situation has deviated significantly, raising questions about the accuracy of existing climatic models.

Current Trends in Cyclone Activity

• Shift in La Niña Forecasts
  • Expectations vs. Reality: A strong La Niña was predicted to emerge this winter, which typically correlates with increased hurricane activity. However, current forecasts suggest a downgrade of La Niña predictions, contributing to the subdued cyclone activity observed this year.
  • Contrasting 2023 Activity: The 2023 hurricane season was notable for its high activity, ranking as the fourth-most active despite the presence of a strong El Niño. This year’s quiet season contradicts conventional expectations, prompting a re-evaluation of the relationship between hurricane activity and El Niño/La Niña phenomena.

Challenges in Cyclone Forecasting

• Improvements and Limitations: While advancements have been made in accurately predicting the trajectory and landfall of hurricanes, forecasting the intensity of cyclones remains problematic. The forecasting community struggles particularly with post-landfall effects, which can cause significant damage and loss of life.
• Rapid Intensification: Historical data show no significant increase in the overall number of cyclones globally, yet there has been a rise in the intensity of storms. Rapid intensification—defined as a wind speed increase of 55 km/h or more within 24 hours—remains difficult to predict, posing additional risks.
• Vulnerabilities in the Indian Context (Climatic Challenges)
  • Increasing Cyclone Activity: The North Indian Ocean, especially the Arabian Sea, has seen a rise in cyclonic activity in recent years. However, the last few years have been atypically quiet, complicating predictions about future cyclone occurrences and their intensities.
  • Chronic vs. Acute Stressors: India faces both chronic climate stressors, such as rising temperatures and sea levels, and acute stressors like extreme rainfall and cyclones. These stressors compound the effects of one another, exacerbating the risks associated with cyclonic events.

What needs to be done (Suggestive Measures)?

• Focus on Rapid Intensification and Landfall Predictions: There is a pressing need for improved forecasting related to rapid intensification and post-landfall impacts of cyclones. Enhanced predictive models could significantly mitigate risks.
• Hyperlocal Risk Mapping: It is essential to develop hyperlocal risk maps for targeted cyclone preparedness. Given India's economic constraints, resources must be allocated strategically to areas most at risk.
• Economic and National Security Implications: India's vulnerability to climate change is not just an environmental issue; it intersects with economic development and national security. A resilient subcontinent is vital for sustained growth and stability.
• Regional Cooperation: Establishing a cooperative framework for weather and climate data sharing among neighboring countries can enhance regional preparedness. Improved forecasting capabilities will benefit not only India but also its wider neighborhood.

India and China have reached a significant agreement to restore patrolling rights to each in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region, these are areas where the problems are called legacy issues, predating the 2020 Chinese incursions.

Background (The Galwan Clash Backdrop)

• In a major escalation along the Line of Control, Indian and Chinese troops clashed in the Galwan Valley on June 15, 2020.
• This incident was the first deadly confrontation in the region since 1975 and resulted in casualties on both sides.
  • The root cause is an ill-defined, 3,440km (2,100-mile)-long disputed border. Rivers, lakes and snowcaps along the frontier mean the line often shifts, bringing soldiers face to face at many points, sparking a confrontation.
• Border infrastructure developments and differing perceptions of the LAC had triggered the clash. 
• Following the clash, both sides engaged in de-escalation talks amid heightened tensions in bilateral ties.
• The PLA's 2020 incursions had severely restricted Indian Army patrols at key points in the Depsang Bulge and CNN Junction.
• However, the establishment of buffer zones in areas like Galwan, Khugrang, Gogra-Hot Springs, and Pangong Tso helped reduce tensions.

Key Points of the Deal

• The two sides have agreed that patrolling in the following two areas will be carried out up to the old patrolling points along the LAC.
  • Depsang Plains in the north of Ladakh
  • Demchok in the south of Ladakh
• This means that Indian troops can patrol up to patrolling point (PP) 10 to 13 in the Depsang Plains, and in Charding Nullah of Demchok.
• Ongoing Disengagement Process: The deal is part of a larger disengagement process that has seen successful pullbacks at several flashpoints, including Pangong Tso, Gogra, and Hot Springs. The current focus on Depsang and Demchok represents a willingness to address the more challenging aspects of the border dispute.

The Supreme Court of India addressed the constitutional validity of the Uttar Pradesh Board of Madrasa Education Act, 2004, which regulates madrasas in the state. The Allahabad High Court had previously declared this Act unconstitutional, asserting that it violated the principles of secularism, affecting approximately 17 lakh students enrolled in around 16,000 madrasas.

Background of the Case

• The Uttar Pradesh Madrasa Education Act, 2004 was designed to regulate the functioning of madrasas, ensuring quality education and governance within these institutions.
• Controversy: The Allahabad High Court’s decision to strike down the Act stemmed from the assertion that it infringed upon the secular fabric of the state by imposing regulations on minority-run educational institutions.
• High Court's Judgment: The Allahabad High Court ruled that the law violated:
  • Secularism: As enshrined in the Constitution.
  • Article 28: Prohibiting religious instruction in state-funded educational institutions.
• The court ordered the transfer of madrasa students to regular schools, raising concerns about the educational rights of minority communities.

Supreme Court Observations

• The laws regulating institutions run by religious or linguistic minorities cannot inherently be deemed as violations of secularism. The mere fact of regulation does not breach the secular principle.
• Such regulations are commonplace and necessary for the better administration of educational entities.
• State's Role in Education: It is within a state’s interests to legislate for the improvement of minority-run institutions.
• Article 30 of the Constitution does provide for a community to promote its religious education; only if the institution receives state funds such religious instructions or education cannot be done under Article 28.
  • However, Article 28(2) also carves an exception to that by providing that such a prohibition does not apply to an educational institution which is administered by the State but has been established under any endowment or trust which requires that religious instruction shall be imparted in such institution.

The Supreme Court of India recently reaffirmed that secularism is a fundamental aspect of the Constitution’s basic structure. This affirmation comes amid ongoing debates surrounding the inclusion of the terms "socialist" and "secular" in the Preamble, particularly as a result of the 42nd Amendment enacted during the Emergency in 1976.

What is Secularism?

• Secularism in the Indian context refers to the principle that the state treats all religions with equal respect and does not favor or discriminate against any religion.
• It ensures that the government remains neutral in religious matters, allowing individuals the freedom to practice their religion while maintaining a clear separation between religion and state affairs.
• Constitutional Framework
  • Basic Structure Doctrine: The doctrine established in the landmark Kesavananda Bharati case (1973) asserts that certain fundamental features of the Constitution, including secularism, cannot be altered or destroyed by any amendment by Parliament.
  • Preamble to the Constitution: Originally, the Preamble described India as a "sovereign, democratic republic."
    • The 42nd Amendment in December 1976 added "socialist" and "secular," thus changing the description to a "sovereign, socialist, secular, democratic republic."

The 42nd Amendment and Its Controversy

• The controversy centres around the 42nd Constitutional Amendment, passed in 1976 during the tenure of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
• This amendment added the terms "socialist" and "secular" to the Preamble, altering the description of India from a "sovereign, democratic republic" to a "sovereign, socialist, secular, democratic republic."
• Petitions arguments: Several petitions have been filed challenging the validity of the 42nd Amendment:
  • Inclusion of "socialist" was unnecessary and contradicted the original vision of the Constitution’s framers.
  • Dr. B.R. Ambedkar's apprehensions regarding the term "socialism," suggesting that it could infringe on personal liberties.
  • The original Preamble, adopted on November 26, 1949, should remain unchanged and cannot be retroactively amended.

Key Points from the Supreme Court

• During the hearings, the Supreme Court highlighted several important aspects:
  • Secularism as Core Principle: The Court noted that the concepts of equality and fraternity, along with fundamental rights outlined in Part III of the Constitution, inherently signify that secularism is a core feature.
  • Preamble’s Integrity: The Supreme Court maintained that while the Preamble is amendable, any changes must not disrupt the Constitution's basic structure, which includes the principle of secularism.

The term "shadow fleet" has gained traction in discussions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly regarding the transportation of Russian crude oil. Western media outlets depict this fleet as a network of tanker ships allegedly "laundering" Russian crude, with implications that countries like India are complicit in circumventing international sanctions.

What Are Sanctions?

• Sanctions are punitive measures imposed by one or more countries against another country, entity, or individual to influence behavior, often in response to geopolitical conflicts.
• In the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has implemented several sanctions aimed at limiting Russia's ability to finance its military operations through oil sales.
• Mechanisms of Sanction Enforcement
  • Asset Seizure and Freezing: U.S. sanctions target entities and individuals that violate these measures by seizing assets within the U.S. and freezing bank accounts linked to the Western banking system.
  • Price Cap on Oil Sales: The sanctions dictate that Russia can only sell its crude oil at a maximum price of USD 60 per barrel, a strategy intended to curtail its profits and reduce funding for military actions.

Structure of Global Shipping

The global shipping industry is multifaceted, comprising various stakeholders, ship owners, and regulatory frameworks.

• Ownership and Flags: The industry is dominated by Greek ownership (20% of the global fleet), with significant contributions from China and Japan. Ships are registered under flag states, which ideally indicate their country of origin.
• Flags of Convenience (FoCs): Nations like Panama and Liberia allow ship owners to register vessels under their flags to benefit from lower regulatory scrutiny and tax advantages, obscuring ownership.
• Classification Societies: These organizations certify ships for safety and environmental compliance, facilitating insurance coverage, including Protection and Indemnity (P&I) insurance for liabilities.

Challenges in Enforcing Sanctions

• Complex Ownership Structures: Many vessels operate under intricate ownership models, often involving shell companies that disguise the true ownership and origin of the ships.
• Flag Switching: Ships may change their flag to evade scrutiny, utilizing FoCs that do not comply with rigorous international maritime regulations.
• Insurance Loopholes: Ship owners can navigate around P&I insurance risks by contracting with European managers or registering under non-compliant jurisdictions.

India's Role and Accusations

• Increased Registration: Following the sanctions, many Russian vessels sought connections with Indian shipping firms, resulting in a rise in registrations with the Indian Register of Shipping (IRS). Critics argue this links India to the shadow fleet narrative.
• Dubai as a Hub: Many Russian vessels shifted operations to Dubai, where Indian entities have a significant presence, raising concerns about the laundering of Russian crude.
• IRS Defense: The IRS has stated that its primary responsibility is ensuring vessel safety and that it provides classification services to ships under flags like Liberia and Cyprus, which do not raise immediate red flags.

Recent data from the All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey (AIRFIS) for 2021-22 indicates a significant rise in dependence on agriculture for livelihoods in India, reversing a trend of declining reliance on the sector. This phenomenon raises important questions about the economic landscape and labor dynamics in rural India, especially in the context of post-COVID recovery.

Key Findings from the AIRFIS 2021-22

• Increase in Agricultural Households: The survey found that 57% of rural households are classified as "agricultural," up from 48% in the 2016-17 survey. This includes households engaged in activities such as cultivation, livestock rearing, and aquaculture.
• Definition of Agricultural Households: An "agricultural household" is defined as one that reports a total agricultural produce value exceeding Rs 6,500, with at least one member self-employed in agricultural activities during the reference year (July 2021 to June 2022).
• Income Trends: The average monthly income of agricultural households rose to Rs 13,661, surpassing the Rs 11,438 average for non-agricultural households. This reflects an increase from Rs 8,931 in 2016-17 for agricultural households.
• Income Contribution from Agriculture: In 2021-22, over 45% of the total income for agricultural households came from farming, up from 43.1% in 2016-17. This trend was consistent across all land size categories, indicating a growing reliance on agriculture.

Reversal of Employment Trends

Data from the National Sample Survey Office's Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS) indicate a reversal in the trend of declining agricultural employment:

• Labor Force Participation: The share of the workforce engaged in agriculture dropped from 64.6% in 1993-94 to a low of 42.5% in 2018-19. However, this trend reversed post-pandemic, with the agricultural share rising to 46.5% in 2020-21.
• Rural Employment Statistics: The proportion of rural workers in agriculture increased from 57.8% in 2018-19 to 61.5% in 2019-20. Although this figure dropped slightly in subsequent years, it rebounded to 59.8% in 2023-24.

The Paradox of Growth and Agriculture

Despite India's economic expansion—growing from USD 1.82 trillion in 2011 to USD 3.55 trillion in 2023—the dependency on agriculture for employment has increased. This paradox can be attributed to several factors:

• Limited Job Opportunities in Manufacturing: Manufacturing employed only 11.4% of the workforce in 2023-24, down from 12.6% in 2011-12. This limited growth in manufacturing jobs has failed to absorb surplus labor from agriculture.
• Informal and Low-Productivity Sectors: Many workers transitioning out of agriculture are moving into sectors that exhibit similar characteristics, such as low marginal productivity and informal employment, rather than into higher-paying manufacturing jobs.
• State-Specific Employment: States like Chhattisgarh (63.8%), Madhya Pradesh (61.6%), and Uttar Pradesh (55.9%) have high shares of their labor force engaged in agriculture, indicating regional disparities in employment dynamics.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced the development of a low-pressure system over the East-central Bay of Bengal, which is expected to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm, named "Dana".

The Naming of Cyclones

• The process of naming cyclones in the North Indian Ocean follows a structured convention initiated by the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones.
• Countries Involved
  • Original Group: In 2000, a group comprising Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand began naming cyclones.
  • Expansion: In 2018, the panel expanded to include Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen.
  • Total Names: The IMD has a list of 169 cyclone names, with 13 suggestions from each of the 13 member countries.
• Naming Conventions: Countries must adhere to specific guidelines when proposing names:
  • Neutrality: Names should not reference political figures, religions, or cultures.
  • Sensitivity: Names must not offend any global population group.
  • Length: Names should be short, easy to pronounce, and contain no more than eight letters.
  • Originality: A name cannot be repeated until all others on the list have been used.
  • Pronunciation: Each proposed name must include its pronunciation.
• Naming cyclones serves several important purposes:
  • Memorability: Names are easier to remember than numbers or technical terms.
  • Awareness: Named storms facilitate public awareness and media reporting.
  • Preparedness: They enhance community preparedness by enabling rapid dissemination of warnings, especially during multiple cyclonic events.

Representatives from governments around the world have been gathering in Cali, Colombia, for the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).

What is CBD COP16?

• COP stands for "Conference of the Parties," referring to regular meetings of countries that have ratified a specific UN convention.
  • In this instance, COP16 marks the sixteenth meeting of the Parties to the CBD, a treaty designed to promote sustainable development through biodiversity conservation.
• The last biodiversity conference, COP15, took place in Montreal in December 2022, where the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) was established. This framework outlines:

• Long-term Goal: Achieving a world in harmony with nature by 2050.
• Short-term Targets: Twenty-three specific goals aimed at halting and reversing biodiversity loss by 2030.

• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
  • The CBD, launched during the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, is one of the most widely ratified UN conventions.
  • It aims to conserve biological diversity, ensure sustainable use of its components, and promote fair sharing of genetic resource benefits.
  • Parties to the CBD convene every two years to review progress and set new priorities.

The Indian government plans to extend the ‘UDAN’ (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) regional air connectivity scheme for 10 more years.

About UDAN Scheme

• Launched in: 2016
• The Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS)-UDAN (Ude Desh Ka Aam Naagrik)is a regional connectivity scheme.
• It is a vital component of India's National Civil Aviation Policy (NCAP) 2016, launched by the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA) in 2016, with a 10-year vision.
• The Centre’s UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) scheme aimed at enhancing regional air connectivity and making flying more affordable was introduced in 2016 for 10 years. 
• The UDAN scheme aims to establish air connectivity in underserved regional areas.
• The Scheme offers financial incentives to selected airlines, comprising concessions from central and state governments and airport operators.
• The government, under the scheme, provides financial assistance to selected airline operators through Viability Gap Funding (VGF).
• Notably, the scheme was initially launched for the period of 10 years, and now the government intends to extend this for 10 more years.
• Implementing Agency: Airport Authority of India (AAI)
• Progress so far:
  • Under UDAN, 601 routes and 86 airports have been made operational, serving over 14.4 million passengers thus far.
  • Notably, the first flight under ‘UDAN’ scheme was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 27, 2017. This was from Shimla to Delhi.
  • The scheme aims to provide opportunities to small regional airlines to scale up their businesses.

The Supreme Court's recent ruling on Section 6A of the Citizenship Act, 1955, has upheld its constitutionality, igniting discussions on its implications for Assam's citizenship landscape. This decision reflects the complexities surrounding citizenship issues in Assam, particularly in light of historical demographic concerns and the Assam Accord.

Historical Background and Legislative Context

• Demographic Concerns in Assam: Assam has a long-standing history of concern regarding demographic changes, particularly relating to illegal migration from Bangladesh. This issue sparked violent uprisings in the 1970s and 1980s, leading to the Assam Accord, which sought to address these fears by establishing a citizenship framework.
• Introduction of Section 6A: Section 6A was introduced as part of the Assam Accord to provide citizenship to residents from 1950 to 1966 and a pathway for those from 1966 to 1971. Only migrants who entered after March 25, 1971, are deemed illegal. This provision aimed to create a localized citizenship regime to stabilize the region.
• Challenges to Section 6A: Organizations in Assam have challenged Section 6A, arguing it discriminates by treating Assam differently from the rest of India and violates cultural rights under Article 29. They contend the cut-off date for citizenship should be uniform across the country.

Supreme Court Ruling and Its Implications

• Majority and Dissenting Opinions: The Supreme Court, by a 4-1 majority, upheld Section 6A's constitutionality, viewing it as integral to the Assam Accord. The dissenting opinion noted the provision's unconstitutionality from the date of the judgment but did not affect existing citizenship claims.
• Consequences of Upholding Section 6A: The Court's decision aims to avoid creating stateless individuals in Assam, recognizing that invalidating Section 6A could render many residents without citizenship. The ruling illustrates a balance between legal validity and the socio-political landscape.
• Future of Citizenship in Assam: While the ruling affirms Section 6A, it raises concerns about the implementation of citizenship identification processes like the National Register of Citizens (NRC), which left approximately 19 lakh residents in limbo. A need for political solutions that address cultural and linguistic fears remains critical.

Practice Question

Q: Discuss the implications of the Supreme Court's ruling on Section 6A of the Citizenship Act, 1955, in the context of Assam's demographic challenges and the historical backdrop of the Assam Accord. What future steps should political leaders take to address these issues?

With November 26 marking the 75th anniversary of the adoption of the Constitution of India, this milestone serves as an opportunity to reflect on the core values that have shaped India’s constitutional governance and its impact on democratic culture.

Core Constitutional Values

• Respect for Democratic Institutions: The Constitution was adopted in 1949 when life expectancy was around 32 years, highlighting significant social and economic progress. The consistent voter turnout, including 65.79% in the 2024 elections, reflects the public's respect for democratic institutions.
• Smooth Transition of Power: India's political landscape has seen diverse parties and leaders transition power seamlessly, emphasizing the electorate's understanding of governance. This commitment to peaceful power transitions, despite electoral rivalries, showcases a mature democratic tradition.
• Protection of Rights and Freedoms: The Constitution prioritizes fundamental rights, with courts established to safeguard individual freedoms. The framers, mindful of the state’s potential overreach, enshrined these rights, which have been further reinforced over time, reflecting a deep commitment to individual liberties.

Federalism and the Role of Civil Society

• Federalism as Governance: Recognizing India's diversity, the framers embedded federalism within the Constitution, allowing for autonomy and special privileges for different states. This framework promotes equity and inclusivity while facilitating the emergence of regional political parties.
• Role of Media: The Indian media, through its diverse representation, has played a crucial role in fostering democratic engagement. Despite challenges, the media’s capacity to inform and engage the electorate has been instrumental in promoting transparency and accountability.
• Celebrating Constitutional Governance: The successful establishment of a national identity rooted in constitutional ideals demonstrates India's resilience against skepticism about its unity. This 75-year journey highlights the Constitution as a catalyst for social and political consciousness.

Practice Question

Q. Discuss the core constitutional values that have shaped India's democratic culture over the past 75 years, and evaluate their significance in contemporary governance.

The urgent need for a comprehensive Nature Restoration Law in India is underscored by the alarming rate of land degradation affecting nearly 30% of the country’s geographical area. The EU's recently enacted Nature Restoration Law (NRL) serves as a potential model for India to address its environmental crises.

Current Environmental Challenges

• Extent of Land Degradation: India's Desertification and Land Degradation Atlas indicates that approximately 97.85 million hectares (29.7%) of land were degraded by 2018-19, a significant increase from 94.53 million hectares in 2003-05. States like Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan account for 23.79% of this desertified land.
• Comparison with EU's NRL: The EU's NRL mandates the restoration of at least 20% of its land and sea areas by 2030 and aims for full restoration by 2050. This law targets various ecosystems, reflecting a comprehensive approach that India could emulate.
• Existing Initiatives in India: India has initiated programs like the Green India Mission and the National Afforestation Programme to combat land degradation. However, the severity of the issue necessitates a legally binding framework similar to the EU's NRL to ensure sustainable ecosystem restoration.

Proposed Framework for India's Law

• Restoration Targets: A potential Nature Restoration Law for India could set a target to restore 20% of degraded land by 2030, ultimately aiming for complete restoration of ecosystems by 2050, encompassing forests, wetlands, and urban spaces.
• Focus on Key Ecosystems: The law should prioritize the restoration of critical wetlands, agricultural biodiversity, and free-flowing rivers. For instance, targeting a 30% restoration of key wetlands like the Sundarbans by 2030 can enhance biodiversity and carbon sequestration.
• Economic and Social Benefits: Implementing a restoration law could yield substantial economic returns, potentially generating up to $10 trillion globally by 2030. In India, such efforts would improve agricultural productivity, water security, and create millions of jobs, particularly in rural areas.

Practice Question

Q: Critically evaluate the need for a comprehensive Nature Restoration Law in India, drawing comparisons with the European Union's Nature Restoration Law and its potential impact on environmental and socio-economic aspects.